Abbreviations and Acronyms
Workshop Facilitators and Presenters
Definitions
Preface
Opening Session
Workshop Report
Overview of the Natural Hazards in the Caribbean (See Appendix I)
Introduction to Hazard Mapping and Hazard Assessment (See Appendix II, and III)
Use of GIS in Hazard Mapping and Assessment
Vulnerability Assessment
Incorporating hazard assessments in the development planning process
Case Studies
Workshop Conclusions and Observations
Appendices:
GIS: Geographic Information System
EIS: Emergency Information System
CDERA: Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency
NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
OAS: Organization of American States
SRU: Seismic Research Unit, UWI St. Augustine
BVI: British Virgin Islands
ODPEM: Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (Jamaica)
CPACC: Caribbean Programme for Adaptation of Climate Change
CDMP: Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project
USAID: US Agency for International Development
PAHO: Pan American Health Organisation
CDB: Caribbean Development Bank
The Caribbean region is exposed to a number of natural hazards. Between 1871 and 1980 there have been 119 hurricanes, with some of the severest hurricanes experienced since 1960. There have been volcanic eruptions in St. Vincent in 1812, 1902 and 1979 and more recently there has been activity in Montserrat. There has been increased flooding in Jamaica, Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago. St. Vincent and Antigua have experienced drought in the seventies and eighties.
The costs to Caribbean countries of disasters has been growing rapidly with Hurricane Hugo costing over $800 million E.C. dollars to four Eastern Caribbean territories.
Against this background the CDMP project has been carrying out a number of projects in disaster mitigation, in an effort to equip the Caribbean region to lessen the impacts of disasters. This workshop is a continuation of a previous one held in St. Lucia in 1997, when disaster managers and planners in the region were brought together for the first time to establish linkages for working together in the area of disaster mitigation.
This workshop was intended to :
The workshop was designed to be interactive and as a result discussion and interaction between participants encouraged throughout the workshop. There were also several exercises at workshop which emphasized group participation.
Opening SessionPresent at the opening ceremony were:
The workshop was opened by the Minister of Information Mrs. Claris who welcomed participants and presenters and indicated that the workshop was timely given recent disasters in the Caribbean and more particularly concerns with the activity of the underwater volcano Kick em Jenny located immediately off Grenada.
The OAS representative indicated that the workshop was meant to build upon the previous one on Mitigation Planning held in St. Lucia and its purpose was to broaden, deepen, and strengthen the hazard mapping process with the end result being influencing of development programmes.
It was of interest that the Caribbean Regional Representative Sterling Mungal, while welcoming participants on behalf of OFDA, indicated that it was only in the Caribbean that OFDA was engaged in mitigation activity.
The representative of CDERA Judy Thomas indicated that while CDERA’s existing mandate was response the agency was actively pursuing a comprehensive approach to emergency management.
The workshop on Hazard Mapping and Vulnerability Assessment was held during the period 2 - 5 March 1999, with participants consisting of planners and disaster managers.
The workshop was intended to be interactive and it was hoped that it could provide the impetus for development of networks both between islands and within islands.
The workshop was structured in the following manner:
The first two days provided an overview of the types of natural hazards in the he Caribbean and introduced participants to the basic techniques used in Hazard Mapping and Hazard Assessment. Given the importance of GIS one session was devoted to the use of GIS in Hazard Mapping.
The third day was devoted to techniques for carrying out Vulnerability Assessment with participants being required to carry out a critical facilities analysis.
The fourth day was dedicated to presentation of mitigation studies carried out in Jamaica BVI and Barbados. This was followed by an exercise on the development of strategies for integrating mitigative measures in development The exercise conducted at the workshop provided specific tools for the assessment of vulnerability and for an assessment of mitigation activities and avenues for their development in the various territories.
This report will summarize the presentations and highlight the major issues raised and suggestions made at the workshop for each activity. The detailed papers of each presenter will be available.
Workshop GoalsThe goals of the workshop were:
The facilitators for this segment of the workshop Dr. Cassandra Rogers and Dr. Ross Wagenseil. Dr. Rogers dealt with earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanoes, landslides and floods. Dr. Wagenseil dealt with hurricanes and coastal storms. In this section of the workshop the presentations focussed on the nature and types of natural hazards experienced in the Caribbean.
This was the first module of the workshop and the following were the natural hazards which were discussed:
These presentations were introduced with broad overviews of the consequences of disasters in the Caribbean. It was indicated that during the period 1960 to 1994, 9,320,087 persons were affected by natural disasters with 11,817 being killed and a total loss of $9.5 billion dollars. See Tables I to IV.
Seismic Hazards (See Appendix I)It was pointed out that the Caribbean region is located in a highly seismic zone and the types of hazards associated with seismic activity were indicated. These were:
The Hazards associated with explosive eruptions were identified as
There were defined as seismic sea waves which form due to sudden changes in the elevation of the sea floor during earthquakes. The change in sea floor elevation causes a wave to form which moves at high velocity. When this wave reaches shallow coastal waters its wave length decreases and if either breaks or moves on shore as a solid wall of water.
Tsunamis may be caused by:
The impacts of tsunamis include:
The vulnerability of tsunami hazard is high in the Caribbean because:
Dr. Ross Wagenseil made a presentation in this area. He indicated that he was developing a CD ROM of hurricane hazards, much of which would be statistical data.
This presentation focussed on the how hurricanes develop and their impacts at various stages of development and included a slide presentation.
The slides used in this presentation are being prepared for wider distribution.
LandslidesLandslides are a natural part of the evolution of the landscape and many of the Caribbean islands are landslide prone by nature. Landslides were defined as a down slope movement of rock/soil under gravity.
The types, causes and land slide hazard in the Caribbean were described.
Types:
The causes of landslides in the Caribbean are conditioned by:
The main reasons why the region is at risk are because of:
The areas in which flooding occurs were described. These are:
The major human contributors to flooding were outlined as follows:
The presenters for this session were Dr. Cassandra Rogers, Lloyd Lynch and Dr. Ross Wagenseil who provided an overview of techniques to be used in the hazard mapping process using examples from the Caribbean.
Landslide Hazard Mapping and AssessmentThis involves the mapping of the landslide occurrence and evaluating the potential of future landslides and determining the probability of landslide occurrence.
Past and existing location of landslides are correlated with the distribution of critical physical factors influencing landslide occurrence. These factors are: geologic, geomorphic, and hydrologic.
The correlated factor combinations are used to classify the region into hazard zones.
Earthquake Hazard MappingThis presentation by Mr. Lloyd Lynch from the Seismic Research Unit (SRU), Trinidad and Tobago was based on seismic hazard maps prepared for the CDMP project depicting the distribution of seismic hazard in the Caribbean.
It was indicated that seismic zoning and seismic hazard assessment are the same. The first step in the mapping process was the collection of basic geoscience data such as types and intensities earthquakes; the distribution of faults, thrusts and volcanoes. This information is reinforced by laboratory assessments such as the testing of rock samples and earthquake simulation.
The output from these investigations would be the maps which will indicate distribution of vibrations, areas of equal seismic potential and source zones.
Recurrence models are used to determine how other earthquakes will occur over a period of time.
All of the above information will be combined to produce expected spectra, which indicate how amplitude will vary with frequency dependent on physical characteristics and structure of the area.
The above information can then be used for risk analysis and to determine expected economic loss.
The information can be used in the following manner:
In developing the hazard maps knowledge of conditions in the region were critical. It was indicated that the maps produced were guidelines, and that microzonation studies are not done in any great detail in the region.
Volcanic Hazard Mapping and AssessmentThe type of assessments will depend on:
A simple Assessment will use a hazard inventory showing a map of path of previous and/or new pyroclastic flows and other hazards.
A detailed assessment will require computer simulation of volcanic flows.
The information and data required are:
The following are the types of information which will be produced:
Several examples were used as illustrations. Among these were mapping done in Montserrat.
Special reference was made to this underwater volcano given its history and proposals for monitoring it.
This volcano is located 8k off the north coast of Grenada and is the most active volcano in the region. It has erupted 10 times since it was discovered in 1936. In 1988 and 1990 the eruptions were explosive. It was indicated that if the intensity of this volcano increases by a magnitude of 3 it can cause secondary hazards like tsunamis. The height of the summit of the volcano is 120 feet below sea level; Grenada will receive the first impact of any major activity.
The CDB has provided a grant for the monitoring of this volcano as early detection is not possible without monitoring. The monitoring system is comprised of 4 seismic implements and tide gauges. It is planned to set up 3 to 4 tsunami warning monitoring sites on a twenty-four hour basis. A capacity to inform an early warning system is also to be developed.
Coastal Storm mapping and assessmentThe TAOS model is a computer based numerical model which produces estimates of maximum sustained wind vectors, at the surface, and still water surge heights and wave heights, at the coastline, for any area in the Caribbean region. Storm model runs can be made for any historical, hypothetical or active storm, or for probable maximum events associated with different return periods. Outputs can be exported to GIS formats.
With the use of the above model and input of data from several hurricanes/coastal storms, a number of maps were generated and displayed.
It is proposed that these maps will be used to inform the planning process and to inform discussion with respect to standards, insurance, etc. The application of the model will take into account high buildings located along the coast. The maps will be produced as CDs and will be available by late 1999.
Flood Hazard Mapping and AssessmentFlood hazard maps are used to define the extent frequency and magnitude of the hazard. The approaches to flood hazard mapping outlined were:
The methodology for development of the hazard maps will require:
The Layou flood hazard mapping activity in Dominica was used as an example of flood hazard mapping and assessment. Subsequent to a November 1997 landslide dam formation, a flood hazard mapping exercise was carried out and a flood vulnerability reduction plan was put in place for the Layou River watershed.
A multi-disciplinary task force was composed of all stakeholders—representatives from the Disaster Management Agency, the Health Department, the Community Development Department, the Ministry of Community and Works, Fisheries Department, the Agricultural Department and the Community.
Flood hazard and flood vulnerability reduction maps were prepared. A separate vulnerability reduction plan was also prepared in the event of a dam failure.
An evacuation plan which identified shelters was also prepared. Because no data were available, the hazard mapping had to be done based upon interviews.
Monitoring of the area is continuing with the involvement of the Forestry Department and the villages.
Use of GIS in Hazard MappingA short presentation was made by Dr. Cassandra Rogers on geographic information systems (GIS) in hazard mapping as it was felt that the use of GIS was important in the production of hazard maps.
The region is at an interesting stage in the development of GIS as all of the countries had GIS and almost all of them have the basic layers for natural resources. There were problems however with reference to availability of trained persons to develop their data bases.
Many of the initial data bases in the region have been developed in the Physical Planning Units of government ministries, however, the focus of these data bases is mainly terrestrial with little data on the coastal zone.
This deficiency with reference to coastal zone information is being addressed by Caribbean: Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change (CPACC) who was building coastal information base using remote sensing in 12 territories in the region.
GIS was not in common use by disaster agencies in the Caribbean for disaster management. Many of the disaster agencies had Emergency Information Systems (EIS), however, some problems were experienced with reference to the interface of the GIS and EIS.
Although GIS was seen as an important tool, there were a number of problems with respect to its use. The major issue is that its use was application driven and as a result there was no framework in place for quality control, data sharing and training.
The need for GIS data standards was emphasized and this view was also expressed at the Caribbean Conference on GIS held in Trinidad and Tobago in 1997.
Vulnerability AssessmentThis session was conducted by Lori Sutter from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coastal Services Centre. The methodology presented was recently developed by the US NOAA Coastal Services Centre. (See Appendix)
The presentation dealt with the process for carrying vulnerability assessments and indicated the steps which were to be followed. These were:
This session was designed as a follow-up to the hazard identification and mapping presentations. In the workshop, four working groups were set up and were required to prioritize and carry out critical facilities analysis using selected countries in the region. The prioritization involved the rating of each hazard by probability, frequency and areal impact by the potential magnitude of the event.
The critical facilities analysis required that a relative ranking by type of risk be given to each facility. It was suggested that a separate form be used for each facility, which would allow for compilation of all the relevant data.
The above information was then used to inform the assessment matrix.
The major issues raised at this session were that the process for developing vulnerability assessments was very important and that all of the steps should be followed. The question of the availability of information was raised and it was pointed out that where there were problems with obtaining information from traditional sources (census, and other published information) that it may be necessary to work directly with agencies to obtain the information required. It was further indicated that in some areas, especially in dealing with the economic analysis, it would be necessary to bring employees into the process of defining vulnerability.
Participants at the workshop were happy to explore the techniques used in this session but felt that more time was needed to work through the methodology as presented.
Incorporating Hazard Maps and Vulnerability Assessments in Development PlanningThis presentation was meant to show how hazard mapping and vulnerability assessments could be incorporated into the development planning process. Lynette Atwell was the facilitator for this session.
An overview of the types of plans, the development planning process as well as agency responsibility for mitigation policies and activities was provided. The linkages between disaster and development were examined, as was the subsequent use of hazard maps and vulnerability assessments in development planning.
Development was seen as a contributing factor to hazard risk was examined. The following examples of development contributing to risk were cited:
The use of hazard maps and vulnerability assessment in development planning was then examined. It was pointed out that if there was to be efficient planning then there was the need to understand the total circumstances of the region/country for which a plan is to be prepared—that is the physical, environmental, economic and social imparts of all development. In taking into account all of the above there would have to be an understanding of the nature and consequences of hazardous events and their impact on human settlements.
The identification of hazard areas and the assessment of risk and vulnerability associated with such areas can only be accomplished by systematic analysis and mapping. This analysis and mapping is required to inform any plan preparation exercise.
Information of this kind can strengthen and make plans more robust and, as a result, more acceptable.
Hazard Mapping And Vulnerability Assessment In Decision MakingA number of methods were explored for ensuring that hazard mapping and vulnerability assessment are taken into account in policy decision making. They were:
A check list of mitigation issues which need to be examined in the development of a plan was distributed. The list is attached at Appendix V.
Exercise (See Appendix VI)This session was facilitated by Lynette Atwell.
Participants were required to work on an exercise designed to bring together all of the information provided at the workshop to develop strategies for integrating mitigative measures in all aspects of developments.
Four groups were selected and prepared presentations. All of the groups were of the view that disaster mitigation was not at its optimal level in the region. The groups identified inadequacy of legislation, lack of interdepartmental coordination, inadequate data bases and lack of political will as major weaknesses in the development of disaster mitigation programmes in their territories.
Integration with other agencies was recommended by all groups as key to the future development of mitigation plans and programmes for their territories.
Case StudiesFour case studies were presented at the workshop one on the Economic, Social and environmental of Hurricane Hugo in the BVI and three presentations were made on mitigation activities being carried out in the region. Two of the presentations those for Barbados and Jamaica were directly influenced by the workshop held in St. Lucia in 1997 when Disaster Managers and Physical Planners were brought together to work on mitigation planning. Judy Thomas of CDERA was the facilitator for the three mitigation activity presentations.
Economic, Social and Environmental Consequences of Natural Hazards: Hurricane Hugo BVI (See Appendix VII)This presentation was made by Lynette Atwell and it was based upon a Post Hurricane Hugo Assessment carried out for the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) for the BVI in 1993.
Figures for dollar loss for various sectors were collated and impacts on the economy were examined. Social and environmental costs to BVI were examined. It was noted that the environmental costs could not be quantified as the damage assessment done in this area was qualitative. The recommendations of this study indicated the need to incorporate provision for disaster mitigation in development planning at all levels.
Mitigation Planning in Barbados (See Appendix)This case study was presented by the Acting Director of the Central Relief Organization of Barbados and focussed on mitigation work carried out for several flood prone areas in Barbados.
Differentiation between types of flood areas were made and areas were identified as:
A separate study was done for the south and west coastal zone in Barbados to inform:
All of the studies were developed and carried out with the collaboration of the Disaster Management Agency, the Town Planning Department and the Works Department with these agencies playing key roles in the development of the studies and formulation of strategies, policies and projects for mitigative actions.
BVI Mitigation Programme (See Appendix)This case study was presented by Donovan Gentles (currently Information systems Manager for CDERA) who was head of the office of Disaster Preparedness (ODP) in the BVI when the Risk Hazard Mapping Project was carried out there.
Although the Office for Disaster Preparedness was aware of the need for hazard mitigation prior to 1993 there was no significant activity in this area. The Post Hugo Assessment for the BVI carried out in 1993 highlighted the need for the development of mitigation policies and the integration of such policies into the national development process.
Against this background, the ODP included a disaster mitigation section in its organizational structure. However, there was no ownership of mitigation in the unit. Although a post for a mitigation person was recommended for the project, this post was only established in 1999.
Recognizing the need for a solid technical base to inform its mitigation strategies the ODP sought and obtained funding from the British Development Division to carry out a risk hazard mapping project. The objective of this study was to reduce the impacts of natural disasters. The study was required to:
This study, which was carried out by consultants, was informed by multi-agency collaboration and used a GIS.
Based upon the hazard mapping and vulnerability and risk analyses resulting from the study, a number of mitigation strategies have been developed for the BVI.
The presentation on the Jamaica Case Study was made by Sandra Morrison, Senior Director, Mitigation Planning and Research of the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management.
The Jamaica mitigation programme is set against a background of poverty eradication within a context of sustainable human development.
The catalyst for defining the natural hazard management programme inclusive of a mitigation strategy was flooding and rains in June 1979 and Hurricane Allen in August 1980.
The Mitigation programme which is still being developed, is in three phases. These are:
Phase IThe development of short term programmes such as:
The main focus in this area was on flooding with a flood plain mapping project being carried out between 1985 and 1988, and the setting up of a flood warning system between 1989 and 1990.
Phase IIIThis phase is comprised of six elements which are long term proposals for the development of mitigation policies. The impacts of these programmes are that some linkages have been developed between departments and as a result there has been sensitization to the requirements and need for mitigation activities.
Of significance in the ongoing work of the ODPEM is the development of a National Hazard Mitigation Policy with assistance from the USAID/OAS CDMP project (it is expected that the policy will be finalized by mid-1999).
Other mitigation activities which are ongoing are:
The conclusions of this presentation were that there was the need:
Much emphasis was placed on the fact that the Caribbean region is multi-hazard in nature and that there was the need to take lessons from previous disasters. This would require the region to invest resources in mitigation activities.
Mitigation MeasuresTwo major issues were raised with respect to use of vulnerability assessments. These were:
The need for education with reference to hazard mitigation was emphasized throughout the workshop. Several levels of educational activities were mentioned, including:
The preparation of hazard maps requires data which must be collected from a number of sources. It was indicated that it was necessary to use an integrated approach to hazard map preparation and data collection.
It was suggested that data collection was more important than the data base itself and that it was most important that data be shared and properly documented. In order to share data, consideration should be given to ensuring that systems for storage and retrieval of data are compatible.
EarthquakesThe use of the material produced by the Seismic Research Unit (SRU) in Trinidad on earthquakes was of particular interest to participants. It was indicated that, although micro zonation studies were not done in any great detail, the information produced on seismic hazards can aid planners in the development of preliminary plans with respect to the siting of major land uses and critical facilities. The information produced can also inform site specific audits so that it can be determined whether structures to be located in certain areas are reinforced to the magnitude of a particular earthquake intensity.
It was suggested that it was important that hazard maps produced should be made available to all users.
LandslidesThe major conclusions drawn from the discussion on landslides were that human influence is one of the major causes of instability in landslide prone areas. It was also noted that a number of public utilities service development in landslide prone areas and in some cases standards with respect to infrastructure development were such that any tendency to landslides is further exacerbated by how and where such development was carried out.
HurricanesIt was suggested that the use of the term "hurricane belt" should not be encouraged as the whole region is susceptible to hurricanes.
StandardsIt was suggested that there was the need to implement the building code as this was a mitigative measure which could be put in place for most of the countries in the region.
GISIt was indicated that there was a need for data standards for GIS.