Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project
Quarterly Program Performance Report
October–December 1997

Prepared For:
Cooperative Agreement No. 940-1008-A-00-3522-00

Issued By:
Organization of American States
Unit of Sustainable Development and Environment

1889 F Street N.W.
Washington, DC 20011

http://www.oas.org/EN/CDMP

January 1998

HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS QUARTER

• Montego Bay Hazard Assessment Workshop—In October, the CDMP and the Jamaica Institute of Engineers hosted a symposium to present and discuss the results of two storm hazard studies for Montego Bay—an historical storm modeling exercise and a statistical return time analysis. The symposium was well attended and brought the Montego Bay hazard assessment close to completion. See the section "3.1.1 Montego Bay Hazard Mapping."
• Regional TAOS workshop—CDMP and the Caribbean Meteorological Institute co-hosted a regional workshop for meteorologists on uses and applications of the TAOS model in the Caribbean region. The goals of the workshop were to familiarize meteorologists with the model to better understand and interpret its results and to identify TAOS activities at CMI for 1998. See the section "3.4.1 Regional Storm Assessment."
• An updated version of the manual Hurricane-resistant Home Improvement Program: A Toolkit was completed during this quarter. This manual is a compilation of the techniques and lessons learned from the CDMP hurricane-resistant home improvement program pilot projects. The toolkit and associated forms are available for download from the CDMP web site. See the section "6.1 Hurricane-resistant Home Improvement Program."

CROSS-REFERENCE OF CDMP ACTIVITIES BY COUNTRY

The following table lists CDMP activities which affect or reference the countries listed.

DESCRIPTION OF PROGRAM AND
PROJECT ACCOMPLISHMENTS

Project Management and Administration Functions

Project Information Dissemination
In December, the CDMP web site was migrated to the OAS web server; it can now be found at http://www.oas.org/EN/CDMP/. At the same time, the CDMP web site was expanded to include online versions of selected project papers, documents and reports. Documents finalized during this quarter and posted on this site include the Hurricane-resistant Home Improvement Program Toolkit and the CDMP hazard mitigation planning manual entitled, Planning to Mitigate the Impacts of Natural Hazards in the Caribbean. These documents can be downloaded from the Project Papers and Publications link on the CDMP web site.

Note: Section numbers in the subsequent section refer to those in the 1997 CDMP rolling work plan. Numbers skipped in the sequence represent elements for which there was no activity during this quarter.

3. NATURAL HAZARD ASSESSMENT & MITIGATION

3.1 Jamaica
3.1.1 Montego Bay Hazard Mapping
In the third quarter of 1997, CDMP completed two studies of storm surge hazards for Montego Bay—an independent review of TAOS surge estimates for selected historical storms which affected Montego Bay and a statistical analysis of storm surge return intervals for the area. CDMP and the Jamaica Institute of Engineers hosted a daylong symposium on 31 October 1997 to present and discuss the results of the studies. This symposium was attended primarily by representatives of governmental agencies and the engineering community. The meeting resulted in broader support for the TAOS model and recommendations for finalizing CDMP documents describing storm hazards affecting Montego Bay were made. Final documents for the Montego Bay storm surge analysis will be developed in conjunction with the Jamaica Institute of Engineers during the first part of 1998. The report of the storm return statistical analysis is available from the Papers and Publications section of the CDMP web site.

See the CDMP progress bulletins on the project web site for more information on this activity.

3.1.2 Kingston Multi-Hazard Assessment
Landslide susceptibility. During this quarter, digitization of topographic information from 1:50,000 scale maps was completed. This information was the final component required to run the landslide hazard assessment model. The landslide hazard modeling work is nearing completion, with model results scheduled to be presented at a public workshop early next year. Work on the landslide risk reduction manual should be complete in the second quarter of 1998.

Seismic susceptibility. The first phase of the KMA seismic susceptibility assessment was designed to collect the data required for seismic susceptibility modeling, including seismic source zones, depth to bedrock and surface geology and to develop a general attenuation model for Kingston. With the exception of the attenuation model development, phase I was completed during this quarter. The second and final phase will begin in the next quarter and is expected to last six months. Activities during the second phase will include the filling of gaps in selected databases and development of a final probabilistic ground motion model for the KMA.

Coastal storm surge and wind hazard susceptibility. To ensure agreement on the storm surge and wind hazard assessment methodology, work on this component of the KMA was postponed pending the results of the Montego Bay studies. Work on the coastal hazard component of the KMA will begin in the next quarter. The Natural Resources Conservation Authority will develop, with the assistance of CDMP, a detailed bathymetric and topographic database to be used by the TAOS model in this analysis.

Multi-hazard database development and mapping. During this quarter, initial base map and geologic data layers were entered into the project’s GIS database. The base layers include roads, shoreline, hydrology and place names. The geologic layers were developed or collected as part of the seismic hazard assessment and include faults, lithology, depth to bedrock, water table elevations and an historical earthquake catalog. A draft data dictionary was developed for these data layers. Updates to the multi-hazard database will continue as data are developed by the various components of the Kingston multi-hazard assessment.

See the CDMP progress bulletins on the project web site for more information on this activity.

3.2 Belize River Flood Hazard Assessment
Development of the flood hazard model for Belize progressed during the past few quarters, albeit slowly. Calibration of the model encountered significant difficulties, principally due to the scarcity of rainfall observations. The model has been ported from a UNIX platform to the more widely available PC platform. Model development will be completed in the first quarter of 1998, with installation and training in Belize before summer. CDMP will support the participation of representatives from the Central American Hydrological Association in the model training to facilitate other applications of this model in the region.

See the CDMP progress bulletins on the project web site for more information on this activity.

3.3 Dominica Sea Defense Study
Following the rejection by the CDMP consulting engineer of the geotechnical report produced by the engineering firm contracted by the Government of Dominica, a meeting was held in October 1997 at the offices of the CDB between all parties. The contracted engineering firm agreed to undertake the necessary additional investigations and to submit a final report by early 1998. This report, and the detailed coastal surge and wave hazard assessment completed by CDMP in 1996, will be used by the CDMP consulting engineers to set the design standards for coastal reconstruction work.

See the CDMP progress bulletins on the project web site for more information on this activity.

3.4 Regional Hurricane Preparedness and Mitigation
3.4.1 Regional Storm Assessment
Development of MEOWs at the Caribbean Meteorological Institute (CMI). In early December, CDMP and CMI hosted a regional training session on the TAOS storm hazard model at CMI in Barbados. Participants included representatives of national meteorology offices from Antigua & Barbuda, the Bahamas, Belize, Dominica, Grenada, Jamaica, St. Lucia and St. Vincent & the Grenadines. The purpose of this workshop was to familiarize participants with the TAOS/L model sufficiently to understand its uses, applications, products and limitations. Topics covered during the workshop included an overview of the TAOS model, model structure and physics, model verification. Practical sessions included model runs for historical and hypothetical storms, with analysis of the model results. The results of a sample Maximum Envelope of Water (MEOW) run were also demonstrated.

To coincide with this workshop, an updated version of the TAOS/L model was delivered to CMI. This version of the model contains an automated facility for the creation of storm surge and wind MEOWs (Maximum Envelopes of Water/Wind), which are useful for emergency management and development planning.

3.4.2 Preparedness and Mitigation Training
During this quarter, a hazard mitigation planning resources page was added to the CDMP web site. The CDMP hazard mitigation planning guidebook is available through this page, as are links to related resources on the web. Planning has begun for a second mitigation planning workshop to be held in the later half of 1998. This workshop will cover the use of geographic information systems for natural hazard and vulnerability assessment as well as mitigation planning ‘lessons learned’ in the region during the time between the 1997 and 1998 workshops. CDMP shared its mitigation planning materials with USAID’s Asian Urban Disaster Mitigation Project to assist with their planning for upcoming mitigation workshops.

The CDMP was represented at the GIS Conference of the Caribbean, held in Trinidad, 5–7 November. Steven Stichter presented a paper reviewing the CDMP hazard mitigation planning methodology and opportunities for using GIS to facilitate this process. A copy of the paper is available on the hazard mitigation planning section of the CDMP web site.

See the CDMP progress bulletins on the project web site for more information on this activity.

3.5 Regional Seismic Hazard Information
During this quarter, CDMP began discussions with the Seismic Research Unit (SRU) of the University of the West Indies in Trinidad to produce country-level seismic iso-acceleration maps for the Caribbean. This work would be a refinement of a small-scale (regional) iso-acceleration map that was recently produced for Latin America and the Caribbean, through support of the Pan American Institute for Geography and History. The SRU has expressed interest in pursuing such a project; details of this activity will be determined in the next quarter.

4. Community Disaster Preparedness

4.1 Dominican Republic
The coordinator of the ADMD in the Dominican Republic represented CDMP at a meeting of the Inter-American Dialogue on Natural Disaster Reduction. This meeting was held in Panama, on December 11 and 12 and focused on implementation of the Plan of Action of the First Hemispheric Congress on Natural Disaster Reduction held in Miami, October 1996.

Coordination and Communication: During this quarter, ADMD was able to obtain significant free television and radio airtime to describe project activities and to recommend preparatory and mitigative activities in response to natural hazards. Meetings with businesses, community organizations and governmental agencies continued to raise awareness about the project and expand the project’s base of support. The coordination and communication mechanism for private schools continued with the support of the Compañía Nacional de Seguros.

Community Education: Four workshops were held in high-risk communities over this quarter, bringing the total for the year to over 275 workshops. These workshops assist community leaders with disaster and vulnerability identification, identification of a community’s human and material resources and development of a community emergency plan.

Information: Approximately 2,000 copies of the ADMD informative bulletin were distributed to businesses and organizations in November.

Community Initiatives: Eight community initiatives, most of which will be officially inaugurated in January 1998, are currently in progress. Four additional initiatives, all of which address local drainage problems, were reviewed and approved during this quarter.

See the CDMP progress bulletins on the project web site for more information on this activity.

4.2 Haiti
In December, the CDMP national coordinator of Haiti represented CDMP in a meeting on ‘Disaster Preparedness at the Community Level’, which was organized by CDERA in Barbados. The purposes of the meeting were to outline CDERA’s creation and activities, to propose CDERA as a clearinghouse for regional community disaster activities and ideas, to review existing community disaster planning activities in the region and to agree on future activities. The CDMP Haiti coordinator reviewed CDMP community preparedness activities in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. A follow-up meeting was proposed for spring 1998.

CDMP continued to support the local disaster management committees in Jacmel, Les Cayes, and Jeremie. A disaster training response exercise was held in Jacmel, with co-sponsorship of the NGO "Plan International". The local firm contracted to prepare a vulnerability assessment for Jacmel presented its final report. The recommendations from the study are being used by the local disaster committee as a basis for their action plan.

CDMP Haiti also hosted a visit by OFDA Costa Rica and the USAID/OFDA Regional Disaster Advisor. During this visit, agreement was reached on a detailed joint training program for Haiti for 1998. In preparation for this program, the CDMP national coordinator and two representatives from the local disaster management committees attended an OFDA/CDMP sponsored TFI course in Costa Rica December 15 to 19.

5. Lifeline Loss Reduction

5.2 Caribbean Hotel Association Manual
In 1997, the Caribbean Hotel Association and Caribbean Tourism Organization jointly produced a draft Hurricane Procedures Manual. This manual is intended to be used by hotels in the region for hurricane preparedness and response. The audience for this document spans the entire range of hotel management in the region, from owner/operators to large properties. During this quarter, CDMP made arrangements with CHA/CTO to support the development of a chapter on structural mitigation for inclusion in this document and to translate the manual into Spanish. The document is scheduled to be published prior to the 1998 hurricane season.

5.3 School/shelter Vulnerability Reduction in OECS
During this quarter, the CDMP and the OAS’ Natural Hazards Project (NHP) jointly began the school/shelter vulnerability audit in the Eastern Caribbean. The objective of this project is to determine cost-effective retrofit options for existing shelters identified by participating countries (up to 20 properties per country), and to develop guidelines and processes to ensure that schools and other buildings are safe, when needed as shelters. Completing the audit will qualify the participating country to obtain loan funding from CDB for implementing the necessary retrofit work. Participating countries include Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, St. Kitts and Nevis, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. This project is jointly funded by USAID (through CDMP) and the European Community Humanitarian Office (through the NHP).

During this quarter, preparatory work for the school/shelter audits began, including identification of local counterpart engineers and the lists of properties to be reviewed in participating countries. A survey form, to be used as the basis for individual property audits was developed and circulated. Initial surveys are complete for St. Kitts. Surveys for the remaining countries should be complete by the end of the coming quarter.

See the CDMP progress bulletins on the project web site for more information on this activity.

6. Building Standards and Practices

During the third quarter, CDMP began a study of four major projects in the region that failed due to the effects of natural hazards. These projects include the Dominica Port, bridges in St. Lucia, University buildings in Jamaica and a hotel in the US Virgin Islands. Significant progress was made during this quarter in gathering the background materials necessary to understand the factors that contributed to failure, including information on the planning, design, construction and maintenance of these projects. A draft decision tree for incorporating hazard mitigation into project design and implementation was created; a final version of this decision tree will be incorporated into the final design manual.

See the CDMP progress bulletins on the project web site for more information on this activity.

6.1 Hurricane-resistant Home Improvement Program
The updated version of the Hurricane-resistant Home Improvement Program Toolkit was completed during this quarter. Copies of the Toolkit were distributed to all organizations participating in the program. The manual and all forms and appendices are available for download from the Project Papers and Publications link on the CDMP web site.

See the CDMP progress bulletins on the project web site for more information on this activity.

St. Lucia
In St. Lucia, eleven new loan applications were processed for approval and six loans were disbursed. Construction on three of these six properties was completed by the end of the quarter. CDMP visited St. Lucia during this quarter to review project activities. During this visit, significant attention and assistance was given to existing loan repayment problems. The offices of CARITAS suffered extensive damage due to a fire, disrupting office operations for most of this quarter, but files have been sufficiently reconstructed to adequately monitor all loans.

Dominica
A recent radio and television advertising campaign resulted in new interest in the program from throughout Dominica. Ten loans were approved and disbursed during the quarter for a total of EC$59,641.98. All loans were reviewed for compliance with minimum standards for retrofitting. Repayment performance on the loan portfolio has been outstanding with an arrears rate of less than 0.2 per cent. The successful advertising campaign will be followed up in the coming year with a series of community outreach meetings.

Antigua and Barbuda
Fifteen loans were approved during this quarter, but the income levels on 13 of those loans exceeded Antigua’s median income and could not, therefore, be funded from the money available from the Cooperative Housing Foundation. After further negotiations, arrangements have been made for the complete loan package to begin in the first quarter of 1998 with a separate set of borrowers.

Grenada
CDMP met with representatives of the Grenada Development Bank (GDB), Grenada governmental disaster and housing agencies and housing-related NGOs to discuss the GDB’s proposal for replicating the CDMP on hurricane-resistant home improvement program in Grenada. It was decided that a consortium of three parties would organize and conduct such a program. Early in the next quarter, a final proposal will be made to CDMP for assistance with this program.

6.2 Building Code Administration
During this quarter, CDMP received copies of the final versions of building code and building guideline documents for both St. Lucia and Dominica. In the coming year, CDMP will assist the UN Centre for Human Settlements with the development of building code and guidelines for Grenada.

See the CDMP progress bulletins on the project web site for more information on this activity.

7. Insurance Risk Management

On October 22, the Bahamas General Insurance Association hosted a daylong seminar on natural hazard mitigation. Almost one hundred public and private sector personnel participated in the seminar, which addressed the link between building practices, damages from hazards and insurance premiums. Participating insurance agencies were encouraged to promote hazard mitigation by providing lower insurance premiums for appropriately constructed or retrofitted structures. CDMP collaborated with the BGIA on this seminar by providing copies of CDMP reports for the participants and by assisting the participation of the keynote speaker. CDMP reports provided included Insurance, Reinsurance and Catastrophe Protection in the Caribbean; Estimation of Building Damage as a Result of Hurricanes in the Caribbean; and Manual for Caribbean Electric Utilities Addressing the Issue of the Mitigation of Damage caused by Natural Hazards to Civil Works.

8. Dominica Geographic Information System/Environmental Planning Project

The first of a series of GIS workshops was held during this quarter. This two-week workshop addressed the use of GIS for planning and designing distribution system infrastructure, such as a drinking water supply network. The workshop was attended by staff of the Physical Planning Unit (PPU) and engineers with distribution system responsibilities. This hands-on workshop used the planning of a water pipeline for a proposed development as an example to demonstrate the techniques and approaches involved in distribution system planning using the IDRISI GIS software package. The lack of a suitable digital elevation model (DEM) for Dominica hindered the workshop exercise somewhat, but the course instructor was able to construct a useable DEM while in Dominica. The workshop was deemed useful and successful by participants.

An additional four-day workshop was added to assist the staff of the PPU with using and integrating their two GIS packages, IDRISI and SPANS. The CDMP instructor was able to identify problems with current practices and provide useful direction for using these packages and maintaining the associated data files. A workshop on the use of GIS for road alignment in landslide-prone areas was postponed to the next quarter. Much of the local project coordinator’s time in the second half of this quarter was occupied by response to the landslide and resulting landslide dam in the Layou River valley (see #9 below).

See the CDMP progress bulletins on the project web site for more information on this activity.

9. Post-disaster Mission

On 18 November 1997, a large landslide developed in the watershed of a tributary to the Layou River, which is the largest river in Dominica. This landslide caused a landslide dam in the Layou River, which was breached on 21 November, resulting in downstream flooding. A second landslide occurred in the watershed on 25 November. The resulting dam remains in place. The CDMP was consulted regarding response to this hazard. In early January, CDMP will undertake a post-disaster mission to study the dam and coordinate response to reduce vulnerability to damage to population and property.