The Caribbean version of the TAOS ['The Arbiter of Storms'] model, developed by Charles Watson for the Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project (CDMP) is based in the Caribbean Meteorological Institute (CMI). CMI has begun development of a series of Maximum Envelope of Water (MEOW) maps of Antigua, which will be used as a pilot project for the development of MEOWS for other Eastern Caribbean Islands. The major goal of this project is to develop prototypes for maps of wind and surge hazards from tropical storms. It is expected that these maps will facilitate planning and preparedness activities for disaster and other development planning agencies.
The purpose of the workshop was to determine appropriate map format, distribution plan and use guidelines for the storm hazard information produced for Antigua.
The objectives of the workshop were:
The workshop was designed to do the following:
The workshop was attended by a total of 21 persons who came from a wide cross section of government agencies, and community groups which deal with disasters, as well as a few persons from professional organisations.
It is interesting to note that all of the participants who attended on Monday returned on Tuesday for the technical session. Lists of persons who attended the workshop on both days are attached at Appendix I and II.
The opening session was chaired by Mr. John De Nully the Coordinator of National Organisation for Disaster Services (NODS) in Antigua. The workshop was opened by Mrs. V. Alexander the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Labour and Home Affairs who indicated that given recent experiences there was support, interest and need for initiatives such as the storm surge mapping project. Steven Stichter of the OAS then made a presentation on the Background to the Project indicating that it was a regional project for reducing vulnerability in the Caribbean. He also indicated that the Antigua project was a pilot project which would be used as a basis for development of other maps, atlases in the Eastern Caribbean.
Working Session Day 1Maps produced by the project for Antigua were displayed for the duration of the workshop. Since the participants at the workshop came from a number of varied backgrounds it was felt that it was necessary to provide some general information with respect to hazard mapping as a whole, as well as storm surge and hurricane. As a result introductory papers with information for persons with varying levels of understanding of disaster preparedness and mitigation activities were presented at the beginning of the workshop.
Lynette Atwell the workshop facilitator presented an overview of the Use of Hazard Mapping, so that there would be a wider understanding of the hazard mapping process.
This paper outlined the types of hazard mapping and indicated their uses in the elaboration of planning policies, development of standards and management of systems. It also pointed to the role hazard mapping could play in informing the legal and regulatory framework and indicated the range of groups that would use hazard mapping. A copy of the paper is attached at Appendix III.
Mr. S. Burton from the CMI was responsible for the technical presentations on the first day of the workshop. He presented a paper on Tropical Cyclone Forecasting. This paper defined a tropical cyclone, examined forecasting methods, errors, and strike probability forecasts. Outputs from Hurricane Georges were used to demonstrate probability ellipses for Antigua. This paper is attached at Appendix IV.
The major issues raised in this session were:
It was suggested that since predictions were not one hundred percent accurate that it was necessary to educate users of information so that they could have a better understanding of the limitations and variables involved in forecasting. It was felt that fora such as this workshop which involved a wide cross section of participants were important in determining how such information was to be used.
It was also suggested that there should be specific programmes designed to expose persons to the use and interpretation of meteorological information.
Mr. S. Burton of CMI indicated that the TAOS model was a model for assessing storm surge and wind hazards from tropical storms and hurricanes and was developed by C. Watson, and licensed to the OAS. The TAOS/L model was installed at the CMI in 1994 and has been changed and enhanced with the latest version of the model being installed in October 1998. See attached paper at Appendix V
During the discussion the following matters were raised:
Day two (2) of the Workshop was meant to be a detailed session for technical officers. All of the participants who attended on the first day were present at this session. Mr. S. Burton provided a background to and brief demonstration of the model. See Appendix V.
He selected for his demonstration the 1979 hurricane David. He indicated that the following information was used:
Using the above information the model provides the following outputs for each selected point along a track:
Mr. Burton indicated that the model can provide quick views of maximum predicted surge for one or more islands
The Maximum Envelope of Water (MEOW) is produced by running the model for multiple storm tracks, spaced at a fixed distance apart, for a selected intensity, speed and direction.
It was pointed out by Mr. Burton that the MEOWS were very useful for disaster planning as they could be prepared beforehand. Once the track and intensity of the tropical cyclone is known, the MEOWs could be used to indicate the maximum surges likely and priority areas which required special attention could be pinpointed.
Although the discussions on the second day were of a more technical nature there were a number of areas that participants wished to clarify based upon the first presentations. Much discussion also centred around how people were to be trained and how work on the project would be carried forward. It was also very clear that a great amount of information was provided on the first day and some of the issues raised were because there was now a better understanding of what the model was supposed to do and how it worked.
The following were pertinent questions raised and the issues discussed:
It was indicated that the model could address such a system .
Mr. Burton indicated that the CMI was of the view that the information provided by them was to be used for guidance, as they did not want any conflicts with the National Hurricane Centre.With respect to the giving out of the storm surge information he further suggested that this information could be used to inform local planning efforts being carried out by the disaster agencies.
It was also pointed out that an explanatory document would accompany the maps
- Whether there would any follow up activity such as a training fora for Disaster Coordinators in order to acquaint them with the system.
- Whether consideration could be given to a train the trainers programme in the use of the maps
The following information should be included on the maps being prepared:
Map Presentation: the colours on the maps should be graduated in such a manner that different zones can be easily recognized.
The information provided on the maps should be simple and easy to understand as the maps will be used by persons with varying technical capabilities.
It was agreed that the distribution of the maps should be properly coordinated.
It was recommended that a committee be set up to:
The membership of the committee should be drawn from the following agencies:
It was recommended that consideration be given to holding train the trainers workshops in the use of the maps.
The following agencies indicated their interest in receiving maps/atlases:
NAME |
POSITION |
AGENCY |
---|---|---|
John De Nully | Disaster Coordinator | National Office of Disaster Services (NODS) |
Eugene Benjamin | Supervisor | Public Utilities Authority |
Judy R. Thomas | Ag. Deputy Coordinator | CDERA |
Frederick Southwell | Physical Planner | Development Control Authority |
Aldin Crump | Chief Town and Country Planner | Development Control Authority |
Diann Black-Layne | Chief Environmental Officer | Government of Antigua and Barbuda |
Charles F. Barton | Asst Comm. of Police | Police Department |
Sub Lt. Maxime James | Fisheries/ Environmental Officer | Antigua Barbuda Coast Guard |
Candia Williams | National Office of Disaster Services - Early Warning Project | National Office of Disaster Services |
Lt. Cdr. Wayne Mykoo | Commanding Officer | ABDF Coast Guard |
Atkinson Beazer | Deputy Chairman | Barbuda Council |
Philmore James | Senior Fisheries Officer | Fisheries Division |
Adelta Burton | Chairperson | All Saints East & St. Luke |
Egbert Joseph | Chairperson | St. Johns Rural South |
Vincent Parker | Representative | Rural West D.D.C. |
Deborah Thomas | Consultant Town Planner | Development Control Authority |
Philmore Mullins | Logistics Officer | National Office of Disaster Services |
NAME |
POSITION |
AGENCY |
---|---|---|
Claudette Solomon | Draughtswoman | A&B Draughtsman Association |
Egbert Joseph | Chairperson | St. Johns Rural South D.D.C |
Vincent Parker | Representative | Rural West D.D.C. |
Candia Williams | NODS Early Warning Project | NODS Early Warning Systems Project |
Charles F. Barton | Asst. Comm. of Police | Police Department |
John De Nully | Disaster Coordinator | National Office of Disaster Services |
Frederick Joseph | Habitat Building Committee | |
Philmore Mullin | Logistics Officer | NODS |
Judy R. Thomas | Ag. Deputy Coordinator | CDERA |
Adelta Burton | Chairperson | All Saints & St. Lukes D.D.C. |
Frederick Southwell | Physical Planner | Development Control Authority |
Deborah Thomas | Consultant Town Planner | Development Control Authority |
Aldin Crump | Chief Town and Country Planner | Development Control Authority |
Wayne Mykoo Lt. Cdr | Commanding Officer | A&BDF Coast Guard |
Maxime James | Environmental Officer | Antigua and Barbuda Defence Force Coast Guard |
Philmore James | Senior Fisheries Officer | Fisheries Division |
Patrick Jeremiah | Director | Meteorological Services |
The purpose of this presentation is to provide a background to the entire hazard mapping process so that there can be a full understanding of the requirements not only for emergency management but also how mitigative action can inform the development process
Before considering the various types of hazard mapping if we examine the Disaster Cycle it can be determined where hazard mapping falls. In the cycle, it falls in all of the pre planning stages namely National Development, Prevention, Mitigation and Preparedness.
The following are the types of hazard mapping:
Types of Hazard MappingThis involves the production and generation of hydrological information, hydrological analysis which involves an examination of flood flow frequency, magnitude of peak flows etc. The end product is a map indicating areas likely to be flooded.
This will indicate timing, severity and sequence of surge activity.
The timing and severity of wind activity.
Maps which indicate areas prone to land slips. These maps are based upon geomorphic, geologic, and topographic conditions and may use hydrological information
Maps which identify areas with these activities as well as zones indicating the intensity of activity.
Maps which
Hazard mapping is used to inform all planning processes, the development of standards, management systems and legal and regulatory mechanisms.
One hazard can affect a countrys development strategy as it can impact on the type and location of investment projects as well as infrastructure. It is therefore crucial that hazards be taken into account in planning at any level.
Hazard mapping is the tool which provides information which can be used to
When projects are to be implemented, hazard mapping can aid developers and development agencies in the elaboration of standards for development. Development of the standards will in turn inform building regulations and practice.
The following are the areas which hazard mapping can inform:
Set backs Building heights Lot sizes Density of development
Structural Non Structural
Hazard mapping is a tool which can be used to inform managers of the type of action which can be taken in the likelihood of an event, because it can provide information about areas likely to be affected by an event
The following are the activities which hazard mapping can inform:
Emergency Management - The preparation of plans for an emergency including warnings and evacuation plans
Protective Measures - It can aid in the determination and selection of protective measures for both the community as well as for buildings/facilities
Training and Education - It can aid in the development of training plans as the emergency managers will know before hand which areas/sites/buildings are vulnerable.
Because hazard mapping can be used to inform development of standards as well as building practice it can provide information for the development of the legal and regulatory framework for building and land development.
This legal and regulatory framework will in turn indicate how inspection of buildings and development of land is carried out.
Hazard mapping can advise private agencies of the risks they may need to take. The insurance industry and mortgage financing institutions can benefit from information provided by hazard information which can assist in the development of their policies so that they can determine what risks they are likely to encounter.
There are a number of participants in the hazard mapping process these are:
In many instances there is an overlapping of roles, in that some of the users assist in the production of the maps.
The following are the major participants in the hazard mapping process:
a) The Producers of Hazard Maps
b) The Users of Hazard Mapping
A: Government and Other Development Agencies
- The Planning Agencies Social, Economic and Physical
- The Disaster Agency
- The Developmental Agencies Works Departments, Land Development Companies, Housing Agencies
B: Other Users
- Architects and Engineers
- The General Public
- Aid Groups
- Insurance and Mortgage Companies
The above is meant to be a broad overview of how hazard mapping can be used in a positive way to enhance and inform development