Los temas a discusión en este portal ya han sido analizados por múltiples actores. En este repositorio la SG/OEA reúne algunos de ellos, como una contribución más a la discusión. Este repositorio tiene dos secciones: En la de Políticas integraremos información sobre políticas relevantes a los temas a debate que estén siendo implementadas por los Estados Miembros, Estados Observadores y otros Estados del mundo. En la de Estudios incluiremos análisis, informes y reportes publicados por instituciones académicas, centros de pensamiento, organizaciones internacionales y multilaterales, organizaciones no gubernamentales y entes privados, todos ellos de reconocido prestigio, que sean relevantes para la conversación. La OEA publicará estos artículos e informes en su idioma original.

Gauging the Impact of COVID-19 on Market-Based Inflation Expectations/VOX-EU

  • 19 mayo 2020

The decline in market-based inflation measures has accelerated markedly since the outbreak of COVID-19. Inflation-linked swap (ILS) rates are useful for deriving market-based measures of inflation expectations. In an inflation-linked swap contract, one participant pays a fixed rate cash flow on a notional principal amount while the other participant pays a floating rate that is linked to an inflation index. Thus, the euro 5y5y ILS rate measures current five-year inflation expectations five years ahead in time by taking a long position in a ten-year inflation-linked swap contract and a short position in a five-year contract. This measure reached an historic low on 23 March 2020 of 0.71%. Although market-based inflation measures have rebounded somewhat following efforts by central banks and governments to stem the economic downturn, with a current level of 0.9% the market-based inflation measure is still well below the ECB’s target for medium-term inflation of below, but close to 2% .

Budget Execution Controls to Mitigate Corruption Risk in Pandemic Spending

  • 19 mayo 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in countries ramping up spending and contingent spending to address urgent needs related to saving lives and livelihoods. To ensure the effectiveness of such spending, it is crucial to be mindful of vulnerabilities to misuse and corruption. Emergency spending responses have differed markedly across countries and ensuring the effectiveness of such spending require different specific approaches in each country. Yet there are some common lessons, particularly for countries in which institutional capacities are constrained and fiscal governance is weak—notably in public financial management (PFM) systems and fiscal transparency practices. Drawing on lessons from the 2014–16 Ebola crisis, this note identifies measures that could mitigate corruption vulnerabilities, with a particular focus on budget execution controls.

Covid nostra The pandemic is creating fresh opportunities for organised crime

  • 16 mayo 2020

Karachi is among Asia’s most crime-ridden cities. And yet in eight days in March, after covid-19 forced it into lockdown, not a single car was reported stolen. El Salvador, which has one of the world’s highest murder rates, enjoyed four homicide-free days in the same month. Many countries have reported tumbling crime rates, as crooks, along with everyone else, have shut themselves away. Italy was the first European country to lock down, on March 9th. Even before then, many people were working from home. The number of crimes reported in Italy between March 1st and March 22nd dropped by 64% compared with the same period in 2019.

Special Commentary: COVID-19: Shaping a Sicker, Poorer, More Violent, and Unstable Western Hemisphere

  • 15 mayo 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic will have profound and enduring negative effects on Latin America and the Caribbean, significantly impacting the security, interests, and strategic position of the United States. Department of Defense and other US senior leaders should begin planning now to mitigate or manage the consequences.

Mitigating Risks to Food Systems During COVID-19: Reducing Food Loss and Waste/ FAO

  • 12 mayo 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to wreak havoc globally, generating significant challenges that could result in risks to food security and nutrition in many countries. Countries are ordering lockdowns, restricting movement and observing physical distancing to curb the pandemic. Disruptions in supply chains resulting from blockages on transport routes, transport restrictions and quarantine measures are resulting in significant increases in food loss and waste, especially of perishable agricultural produce such as fruits and vegetables, fish, meat and dairy products. In addition, labour shortages, owing to the restriction of movement of key stakeholders in production and transport, are significantly impacting food supply and demand owing to food shortages in some markets, further contributing to food loss and to the unnecessary waste of food supplies in these difficult times.

El desafío social en tiempos del COVID-19/ CEPAL

  • 12 mayo 2020

La pandemia del COVID-19 tiene fuertes efectos en el ámbito de la salud y profundas implicaciones sobre el crecimiento económico y el desarrollo social. Llega a América Latina y el Caribe en un contexto de bajo crecimiento —como fue analizado en anteriores informes especiales sobre la materia (CEPAL, 2020a y 2020b)— y, sobre todo, de alta desigualdad y vulnerabilidad, en el que se observan tendencias crecientes en la pobreza y pobreza extrema, un debilitamiento de la cohesión social y manifestaciones de descontento popular.

Migration-Related Socioeconomic Impacts of COVID-19 on Developing Countries/ IOM

  • 12 mayo 2020

While the world has focused primarily on the impacts of the COVID-19 Crisis on developed countries in Europe, North America, and East Asia, developing countries will not be immune to the economic fallout from the crisis or its social implications. The vast majority of these countries are deeply integrated into global goods and labour supply chains and will feel the effects of declining demand in the short term; current travel restrictions will have a severe impact on communities reliant on tourism; and many developing countries rely heavily on labour migration – both to developing countries as well as to developed countries – as a way of easing domestic labour market pressures and as a financial resource, with migrants sending home billions of US dollars to family members in the form of remittances, as well as returning with savings which serve to stimulate local economic activity. Restrictions on internal migration further exacerbate the situation as seasonal and trade-related mobility is disrupted, impacting the livelihoods of migrants and their families.

Planning for uncertainty: Performance management under COVID-19

  • 11 mayo 2020

As one executive told us: “The five-year plan that we would be sending to the board right now is completely out the window. How do we plan in this environment when we don’t know what is going to happen?”

The Economic Impact of COVID-19 in Europe and the US: Outbreaks and Individual Behavior Matter a Great Deal, non-Pharmaceutical Interventions Matter Less

  • 11 mayo 2020

Thirty million Americans filed for unemployment in the past six weeks. It took about a year to reach that number in the wake of the Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy. Meanwhile, euro area GDP contracted by 3.8% in the first quarter of 2020 (Eurostat 2020). Against this background, the relatively slow frequency of most official statistics and macroeconomic indicators represents a challenge for policymakers in their efforts to mitigate the economic impact of the crisis.

How to Measure Coronavirus’ Criminal Impact in the Americas? Wait/ Insigth Crime.

  • 11 mayo 2020

The coronavirus has upended crime. But measuring it has not been easy. And predicting its impact going forward may be even more difficult.

At the same time, some traffickers have continued doing business. Repeated seizures in Ucayali, Peru, indicate shipments of cocaine are still moving along Peru’s borders with Brazil and Bolivia. Major seizures in April also show that tons of drugs are still being moved by sea and air, even as land borders have become more supervised.

The Pandemic Has Triggered Dramatic Shifts in the Global Criminal Underworld/ Foreign policiy

  • 8 mayo 2020

To say that COVID-19 changes everything is already a cliché. But it’s also true.

Drug cartels are facing broken supply chains, shrinking revenues, and shifting markets. Rising violence is just one effect.

After a temporary lull in homicidal violence in some countries, there are signs that it is rising once more. Meanwhile, crime groups are migrating online to where the action is. If left to their own devices, they could make the world a more dangerous place.

América Latina y el Caribe: el aumento de los ingresos tributarios se ve amenazado en medio del deterioro de las perspectivas regionales

  • 7 mayo 2020

Los ingresos tributarios en América Latina y el Caribe (ALC) alcanzaron 23.1% del PIB en promedio en 2018, según la nueva edición de Estadísticas Tributarias en América Latina y el Caribe publicada hoy. Sin embargo, el aumento de la carga tributaria se ve amenazado como resultado del deterioro de las perspectivas fiscales de la región, que se ha exacerbado por la pandemia del COVID-19 y la crisis económica mundial.

Early Herd Immunity against COVID-19: A Dangerous Misconception/ Johns Hopkins University

  • 7 mayo 2020
Early Herd Immunity against COVID-19: A Dangerous Misconception/ Johns Hopkins University

Although more than 2.5 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 have been reported worldwide, studies suggest that (as of early April 2020) no more than 2-4% of any country’s population has been infected with SARS-CoV-2 (the coronavirus that causes COVID-19). Even in hotspots like New York City that have been hit hardest by the pandemic, initial studies suggest that perhaps 15-21% of people have been exposed so far. In getting to that level of exposure, more than 17,500 of the 8.4 million people in New York City (about 1 in every 500 New Yorkers) have died, with the overall death rate in the city suggesting deaths may be undercounted and mortality may be even higher.

Six Ways Coronavirus is Impacting Organized Crime in the Americas

  • 4 mayo 2020

Criminal groups across Latin America have been forced to dig deep by the coronavirus pandemic and subsequent lockdown. Moving drugs and contraband, shaking down extortion victims and getting migrants across borders have all become far more difficult amid increased scrutiny and the lack of human activity.

The future of work is here: 5 ways to reset labour markets after coronavirus recovery/ World Economic Forum

  • 1 mayo 2020
The future of work is here: 5 ways to reset labour markets after coronavirus recovery/ World Economic Forum

The coronavirus crisis has hurried the arrival of the “future of work”. Lockdown has seen widescale remote working, increasing automation, a global revaluation of the care economy and a more visible lack of social protection within the gig economy.

There is an opportunity to “build back better” in 5 areas: reskilling and upskilling; supporting the jobs of tomorrow; prioritizing redeployment and re-employment; re-evaluating essential work and improving the quality of jobs; and resetting education, skills and jobs systems for the post-pandemic recovery.

COVID-19-related Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing Risks and Policy Responses/ Financial Action Task Force

  • 1 mayo 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to unprecedented global challenges, human suffering and economic disruption. This paper identifies challenges, good practices and policy responses to new money laundering and terrorist financing threats and vulnerabilities arising from the COVID-19 crisis.

The Invisible Air Force: The Increasing Threat of Drug Flights/ The Strategic Hub for Organised Crime Research (SHOC)

  • 1 mayo 2020

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on international trade has led to a significant retraction in global commerce. The World Trade Organisation (WTO) estimates that worldwide merchandise trade will fall by up to 32% in 2020. This represents a clear loss to legitimate businesses, but also to organised crime groups (OCGs), who depend on high volumes of global trade to facilitate the illegal trafficking of goods and persons. These criminal networks manipulate the vulnerabilities of licit trade routes, exploiting opportunities to conceal their illegal activity in amongst the high volumes of products and services exchange in an increasingly globalised economy. With the emergence of COVID-19, illicit trade has also been severely affected, especially drug trafficking.

Cómo el Caribe puede enfrentar la tormenta económica del coronavirus

  • 30 abril 2020

Para medir el pleno impacto de la crisis y proporcionar la base para las acciones necesarias, los economistas del BID han seguido de cerca los efectos de COVID-19 en la región. El resultado es un informe que arroja luz sobre las implicaciones económicas para seis países del Caribe: Las Bahamas, Barbados, Guyana, Jamaica, Surinam y Trinidad y Tobago. De este análisis surgen dos desafíos principales que deberán enfrentar los países en esta coyuntura.

Expecting Organized Criminal Groups to Quickly Adapt in Order to Exploit the Pandemic via Various Illicit Schemes/ George C. Marshall- European Center for Security Studies

  • 30 abril 2020

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic poses a host of global health, economic, and security challenges, to include the continued challenge of combating transnational organized crime. While some believe this pandemic will disrupt and have a negative impact on the global operations of transnational organized criminal groups, the morbid reality is that these groups view the crisis as a lucrative opportunity. For the foreseeable future, we can expect organized criminal groups to quickly adapt in order to exploit the pandemic via various illicit schemes. In Italy, mafia groups are already demonstrating that they are intent on benefiting from the crime-related opportunities that the COVID-19 pandemic will present.

Vaccine Hesitancy Post-COVID-19: Will Our Memory Fade or Last?/ Global Health Now

  • 28 abril 2020
Vaccine Hesitancy Post-COVID-19: Will Our Memory Fade or Last?/ Global Health Now

Full-scale efforts are underway to develop a vaccine free us from COVID-19’s deadly grip. But even if they succeed (and that’s no guarantee), the question regrettably must be asked: Will people take it?