En este Resumen del informe Perspectivas económicas de América Latina 2020 (LEO 2020 por sus siglas en inglés) se analiza cómo la transformación digital puede ayudar a la región a enfrentar estos tiempos difíciles. La pandemia del COVID-19 está teniendo un profundo impacto en las condiciones socioeconómicas de América Latina y el Caribe, acentuando un escenario ya muy complejo debido a las debilidades estructurales existentes en la región. Esta crisis sin precedentes llega en un momento de altas aspiraciones de la sociedad y refuerza la necesidad de transformar el modelo de desarrollo de la región. El informe explora cómo la transformación digital puede ayudar a hacer frente a la situación socioeconómica actual, impulsar la productividad, fortalecer las instituciones y lograr niveles más altos de inclusión y bienestar. El LEO 2020 también destaca el papel clave que las alianzas internacionales tienen para aprovechar los beneficios de la transformación digital.

La pandemia de COVID-19 ha empujado los niveles de deuda hasta nuevos máximos. En comparación con finales de 2019, se proyecta que los coeficientes de endeudamiento promedio en 2021 aumenten un 20% del PIB en las economías avanzadas, un 10% del PIB en las economías de mercados emergentes y aproximadamente un 7% en los países de bajo ingreso. Estos incrementos se suman a unos niveles de deuda que ya son históricamente altos. Si bien muchas economías avanzadas todavía tienen capacidad de endeudamiento, los países de mercados emergentes y los de bajo ingreso afrontan limitaciones mucho más restrictivas de su capacidad de contraer nuevas deudas.

As in other economic downturns, the pandemic has reduced state and local revenues, but this time is different. Declines in income tax revenues are likely to be smaller than projections based on historical experience because employment losses have been unusually concentrated on low-wage workers (who pay less income taxes than higher-wage workers), the stock market has held up so far (sustaining taxes on capital gains), and the federal government has increased and expanded unemployment insurance benefits and grants to business, which will shore up taxable income. On the other hand, declines in sales and other taxes and fees are larger than historical experience would suggest, because consumption has fallen so sharply and people are staying home—meaning that revenues from taxes and fees on hotels, tolls, airports, and motor fuel have plummeted.

The Covid-19 pandemic is a major test for governments around the world. We study the political consequences of (mis-)managing the Covid crisis by constructing a high-frequency dataset of government approval for 35 countries. In the first weeks after the outbreak, approval rates for incumbents increase strongly, consistent with a global “rally around the flag” effect. Approval, however, drops again in countries where Covid cases continue to grow. This is especially true for governments that do not implement stringent policies to control the number of infections. Overall, the evidence suggests that loose pandemic policies are politically costly. Governments that placed more weight on health rather than short-term economic outcomes obtained higher approval.

La Comisión Interamericana de Mujeres (CIM) de la Organización de los Estados Americanos (OEA), con la cooperación de la Unión Europea a través de su programa EUROsociAL+, presenta y pone a disposición de los Estados Miembros de la OEA, de organizaciones de la sociedad civil y sector privado el documento “COVID-19 en la vida de las mujeres: Emergencia global de los cuidados”, en respuesta a la profundización de la desigualdad en la distribución de las tareas domésticas y de cuidado y al incremento de la carga de trabajo no remunerado que están realizando las mujeres. El texto analiza el rol de las mujeres en el funcionamiento de la vida doméstica y productiva y los impactos en sus vidas y en la economía.

There has been much discussion in recent months about how workers who transitioned to working from home—and those who were deemed “essential”—are less affected by the layoffs and job losses brought on by lockdowns than are workers in “social” jobs that require closer human interaction, like restaurant workers. However, our new IMF staff research suggests that this does not tell the full story.

Corruption, the abuse of public office for private gain, is about more than wasted money: it erodes the social contract and corrodes the government’s ability to help grow the economy in a way that benefits all citizens. Corruption was a problem before the crisis, but the COVID-19 pandemic has heightened the importance of stronger governance for three reasons.

We then explore scenarios where the opening of economies results in recurrent outbreaks of various magnitudes and countries respond with and without economic shutdowns. We also explore the impact if no vaccine becomes available and the world must adapt to living with COVID-19 in coming decades. The final scenario is the case where a given country is in the most optimistic scenario (Scenario 1), but the rest of the world is in the most pessimistic scenario. The scenarios demonstrate that even a contained outbreak will significantly impact the global economy in the coming years. The economic consequences of the pandemic under plausible scenarios are substantial and the ongoing economic adjustment is far from over.

The severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global economic conditions has resulted in an unprecedented number of member countries seeking financial support from the IMF. As of July 13, 2020, 72 countries have already received financial assistance from the IMF’s emergency financing instruments since the onset of the pandemic, facilitated by the doubling of annual access limits under these facilities approved by the Executive Board on April 6. Further requests for assistance, the majority of which are likely to be met through the IMF’s regular lending instruments, are expected in the months ahead.

Reducing inequality and improving social mobility, identifying new forms of growth, and focusing on new measures of economic performance are among the biggest challenges facing the global economy as countries emerge from lockdown. Current unemployment figures are likely a better barometer of economic health than financial market valuations, and the deglobalization of supply chains may force emerging markets to reconsider growth models. These are some of the findings of the World Economic Forum’s Chief Economists Outlook, published today.

Un nuevo análisis del Foro Económico Mundial revela que algunas de las fortalezas turísticas de Latinoamérica y el Caribe revisten menor importancia que antes para una economía turística competitiva durante la COVID-19. La aparición y propagación de la pandemia de COVID-19 ha dado un giro a los factores que hacen que el sector de turístico de un país sea competitivo. Ciertos factores, como la capacidad sanitaria y las ofertas de viajes digitales, están cobrando mayor importancia durante la pandemia. Actualmente, otros, como la apertura internacional, una fortaleza principal de Latinoamérica, son menos importantes.

El Informe especial COVID-19 N⁰ 5 de la CEPAL, titulado Enfrentar los efectos cada vez mayores del COVID-19 para una reactivación con igualdad: nuevas proyecciones, indica que, dado que tanto el choque externo como el interno se han intensificado, la región evidenciará una caída del producto interno bruto (PIB) de -9,1% en 2020, con disminuciones de -9,4% en América del Sur, -8,4% en América Central y México y -7,9% para el Caribe excluyendo Guyana, cuyo fuerte crecimiento lleva al total subregional a una contracción menor (de -5,4%).

“Productivity levels in emerging markets and developing economies remain less than 20 percent of the average in advanced economies, and only 2 percent in low income countries,” said World Bank Vice President for Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu. “A possible silver lining may be that changes in behavior from the pandemic will accelerate the adoption of new technologies, greater efficiencies among businesses, and the pace of scientific innovation. However, it is vital to ensure that these gains are widely distributed and that technology-driven labor market disruptions are well managed.”

The Platform for Collaboration on Tax (PCT) – a joint initiative of the IMF, OECD, UN and the World Bank – published today its Progress Report 2020, which gives a snapshot of the world’s four leading multilateral organizations’ cooperation in the area of domestic resource mobilization, including in their responses to COVID-19.

The latest OECD Economic Survey of the United States says that even as some businesses reopen with the lifting of coronavirus confinement measures, hard-hit sectors like hospitality and leisure will continue to need support, as will newly unemployed or displaced workers who may need to look for jobs in different sectors. The recent extension of the US Paycheck Protection Program by five weeks to August 8 is a welcome move to help small businesses struggling with the crisis. Extending exceptional unemployment benefits beyond the end-July cut-off date would offer a similar lifeline to the millions of households at risk of falling into poverty, as would assistance for job search (such as employment placement services) and support for geographic mobility.

Within the region, the Caribbean economies are suffering even more due to their high dependence on one of the most dramatically impacted sectors—tourism—which, for some, accounts for 50 to 90 percent of GDP and employment.

Given the scale of the crisis and unprecedented uncertainty, governments have had to also deploy fiscal measures to strengthen the health system, protect the most vulnerable and support employment and otherwise viable businesses.

Las nuevas tecnologías pueden ayudar a crear puestos de trabajo que sean justos, equitativos y diversos, según la guía del Foro Económico Mundial sobre la diversidad, equidad e inclusión 4.0, publicado hoy.

A medida que van saliendo de la crisis de la COVID-19, las empresas tienen una oportunidad única de crear una "nueva normalidad" y de luchar contra la exclusión, los prejuicios y la discriminación por motivos de raza, género, orientación sexual o cualquier otra forma de diversidad humana.

Jobs, livelihoods and the well-being of workers, families and businesses across the globe, continue to take a hit from the COVID-19 pandemic; with micro, small and medium enterprises in particular, suffering the dire economic consequences, according to a new policy brief released by the UN on Friday.

“El mundo se encuentra en una etapa nueva y peligrosa, lógicamente son muchas las personas que están cansadas de estar en casa y los países desean, con razón, abrir sus sociedades y economías, pero el virus sigue propagándose con rapidez, continúa siendo mortífero y la mayoría de las personas sigue siendo susceptible a él”, explico el director de la Organización, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

“The world is in a new and dangerous phase. Many people are understandably fed up with being at home. Countries are understandably eager to open up their societies and economies”, WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told journalists.

“But the virus is still spreading fast, it’s still deadly, and most people are still susceptible.”