Efforts to counter the COVID-19 pandemic have seen unprecedented restrictions on movement being imposed in many countries, both at borders and within countries. Some communities and policymakers have adopted increasingly hostile attitudes towards migrants, whom they perceive as contagion risks. Barriers to movement are therefore not only state-imposed but can also be community led.

Hace pocos años, la Unión Europea situó el concepto de “resiliencia” en el centro de su estrategia global y de seguridad. En un mundo más complejo, disputado e interconectado, se asumía que la seguridad y el bienestar enfrentaba nuevos desafíos geopolíticos y los riesgos transnacionales de la globalización. Ello exigía fortalecer la capacidad de cada país para encajar y sobreponerse a un choque externo. Ese era un objetivo de nuestra cooperación con los países en desarrollo, menos resilientes, pero también interpelaba a una UE que se sabía vulnerable ante esos riesgos.

The objective of this report is to provide a snapshot overview of the current trends and insights into disinformation activities related to COVID-19/Coronavirus. It does not provide a comprehensive or complete overview and focusses primarily on the external dimension, in line with the European External Action Service (EEAS) mandate. The report was authored by the EEAS Strategic Communications and Information Analysis Division, which contributes to the EU’s efforts to counter disinformation, including through detection, analysis and exposure of disinformation campaigns. In addressing disinformation and identifying and analysing disinformation surrounding the COVID-19 outbreak, the EEAS is working closely with the European Commission and EU Member States. The EEAS also cooperates on this issue with international partners (G7, NATO and non-state actors). The results are regularly published on EUvsDisinfo.eu and social media channels. Insights are shared with EU institutions and EU Member States in real time, including through the Rapid Alert System on Disinformation.

Este artículo de MIT Technology Review indica que la mejor estrategia para frenar la pandemia de coronavirus requiere que nos confinemos durante dos de cada tres meses, según un modelo del Imperial College de Londres. Y el mes que podamos salir, las normas sociales deberán cambiar drásticamente, algo que afectará principalmente a los más vulnerables.

This article by the International Crisis Group says that deadly and disruptive as it already is, and terribly as it could yet worsen and spread, the 2020 coronavirus outbreak could also have political effects that last long after the contagion is contained. Crisis Group identifies seven points of particular concern.

La irrupción en el escenario internacional de la COVID-19 ha tenido incalculables consecuencias, más allá de las fatalidades y otras repercusiones lamentables. La pandemia ha expuesto las vulnerabilidades del sistema internacional, así como la fragilidad intestina de los países para afrontar amenazas emergentes a la seguridad nacional, como las pandemias y otros riesgos.

We cannot predict when such liquidity shortages will happen. But we do know that when the global capital pipelines freeze up, a short-term liquidity problem can quickly slide into a deeper and longer-lasting solvency problem. A liquidity line that is available on demand can be a lifeline in such cases.

The IMF responded to this need by establishing a new facility last week called the Short-term Liquidity Line (SLL), the first addition to the IMF’s financing toolkit in almost ten years. As part of its broader crisis-response strategy, this new facility provides a reliable and renewable credit line, without ex post conditionality, to members with very strong fundamentals and policy frameworks—the same qualification criteria as another IMF facility called the Flexible Credit Line. The SLL is designed to address a special balance-of-payments need—potential, moderate, and short-term—reflected in capital account pressures following external shocks.

This article by the CATO Institute says that as the COVID-19 virus spreads across the U.S., some Americans have highlighted the economic consequences of the crisis, particularly the disruptive drop in production of goods destined for U.S. manufacturers. This has led to calls to use the crisis as an opportunity to decouple the two nations economically, one reason for such being to protect U.S. companies and consumers from supply disruptions.

There always is a case for diversification, says the CATO Institute article, as well as domestic production of narrowly defined essential goods. Yet autarky long has been recognized as a strategy of economic impoverishment. The benefits of international trade remain great, ensuring the ability to acquire goods that are better, cheaper, and varied. The diversity in product, process, and location offer important alternatives to sometimes limited domestic supplies. Further, the increased prosperity that results from economic specialization generates a long‐​term cushion to temporary disruptions. Countries forced to practice veritable autarky because of foreign sanctions, such as Iran, become desperate when faced with a healthcare crisis like the present.

It is urgent to understand the future of severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. We used estimates of seasonality, immunity, and cross-immunity for betacoronaviruses OC43 and HKU1 from time series data from the USA to inform a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave. Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022. Additional interventions, including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.

This article by The Dialogue claims that the COVID-19 pandemic is one of the worst shocks ever to affect Latin America and the Caribbean. Governments, firms, and workers are coping with a severe economic crisis with yet unknown human losses and potential for social disarray. The region is being hit by large demand shocks from sharp commodity price falls due to a slump in external demand, external capital flight, financial sector volatility, and a collapse in tourist flows due to border closures and immobility measures. These shocks have been exacerbated by output disruptions associated with mandatory social distancing which have paralyzed all non-essential economic sectors, with a high toll on the spending capacity of millions of firms and consumers. In view of this situation, there is an urgent need to build more resilient societies, with buffers to mitigate shocks and adequate delivery of public goods and services. This will test the capacity and determination of all relevant actors in the region.

recientes análisis demuestran que la crisis económica provocada por el coronavirus podría sumir en la pobreza a 500 millones de personas, si no se toman medidas drásticas y urgentes. Este virus afecta a todo el mundo, incluidos estrellas de cine y miembros de las realezas. Sin embargo, el componente de igualdad acaba ahí. Si esta crisis no se aborda de manera adecuada, exacerbará las desigualdades extremas entre ricos y pobres, países desarrollados y en desarrollo y hombres y mujeres, causando un profundo sufrimiento.

As COVID-19 spreads quickly, so does the threat of cybercrime. Hackers are taking advantage of the current uncertainty to send out even more phishing messages than usual, with varying degrees of sophistication.

The sector which is most crucial to containing the spread of COVID-19 – healthcare – is perhaps also the most vulnerable to ransomware attack.

Security experts are increasingly concerned about cybercrime because it currently benefits from favourable external conditions: a massive and uncoordinated shift to working from home offices in both public and private sectors, nationwide lockdowns which require increasing use of electronic transactions, and a rush for basic necessities, which fractures any semblance of ‘civil’ society. In the long run, economic recession will likely trigger tectonic changes in how young people sustain themselves. An increased reliance on criminality, both online and offline, is to be expected, particularly in regions where youth unemployment was already high.

The relationship between catastrophes and organized crime is not straightforward, but past disasters can offer some clues. Especially in contexts marked by high levels of corruption, criminal groups reportedly have exploited crises to carry out extortion, embezzlement, diversion of aid, and other activities.

The World Economic Forum analyzes in this article the impact of the pandemic in Japan. In a survey of more than 10,000 Japanese business, more than 63% projected that COVID-19 would have a "negative impact on their business performance", but going online and remote working is creating opportunities for some business and forcing reflection on Japan's long-hours working culture. The article indicates that more time spent at home is also prompting families to reconsider traditional domestic roles.

Painel Covid - um mapa com dados de evolução de casos do Covid-19, juntamente com dados de evolução de exportação entre o Brasil e outros países, atualizados mensalmente, para que formuladores de políticas e exportadores possam seguir essa dinâmica e tomar suas decisões

El Centro Internacional CIDOB de Barcelona señala que puede ser que la crisis del coronavirus sea sólo un bache en el camino de las dinámicas internacionales durante las últimas décadas. Quizá, tras un periodo de hibernación de las principales economías internacionales, la vida vuelva a la normalidad, los planes de estímulo capeen el temporal y el mundo vuelva a ser plano e híperconectado. Sin embargo, el coronavirus puede ser también un punto de inflexión en la era de la globalización. 

World trade was already slowing in 2019 before the COVID-19 outbreak. WTO trade statistics show that the volume of world merchandise trade shrank by 0.1% in 2019, marking the first annual decline since 2009, during the global financial crisis. Trade was relatively weak in the final quarter of 2019, but this is unlikely to have been influenced by COVID-19, which was first detected very late in the year. The seasonally-adjusted volume of world merchandise trade in Q4 was down 1.0% year-on-year and 1.2% compared to the previous quarter. Growth was held back by persistent trade tensions and by slowing economic activity in major economies.

A number of criminal groups across Latin America are ordering ceasefires and exerting control over local communities as fears of the coronavirus sweep across the region, raising questions about how these groups will use this crisis to further their legitimacy and power.

Latin American governments have implemented some of the swiftest measures in the world to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus. El Salvador closed its borders to foreign travelers and imposed a national quarantine on March 12, a full week before the country registered its first case of COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus. And on March 15, Peruvian President Martín Vizcarra suspended the constitutional right to free movement and deployed the military to enforce mandatory social distancing and arrest thousands who violated the restrictions. Although two of the region’s largest states—Brazil and Mexico—have resisted lockdowns and dismissed the danger that the virus poses, other major countries, such as Argentina, Chile, and Ecuador, were among the first in the Western Hemisphere to close schools and impose nationwide curfews.

The study of the Northwestern University indicates that compared to “regular” recessions, which affect men’s employment more severely than women’s employment, the employment drop related to social distancing measures has a large impact on sectors with high female employment shares. In addition, closures of schools and daycare centers have massively increased childcare needs, which has a particularly large impact on working mothers.