The volume of world merchandise trade has fallen precipitously in the first half of 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the global economy. Leading indicators provide clues about the extent of the slowdown and how it compares with earlier crises.

“There is still a lot of uncertainty about the possibility of any economic recovery in the second half of the year,” says Pamela Coke-Hamilton, UNCTAD’s director of international trade.

“International trade is likely to remain below the levels observed in 2019,” she adds, “but how far depends on the pandemic’s evolution and the type and extent of the policies governments adopt as the try to restart their economies.”

The contraction responds to the continuation of a downward trend that began in early 2019, when exports from the region declined by 2.2 percent, and to the first effects of the economic crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The downturn in global demand hit the region through both the price and volume channels, according to the latest edition of Trade Trend Estimates for Latin America and the Caribbean.

“Hemos analizado el avance de 72 series estadísticas de los indicadores de los 17 ODS para la región: 4 alcanzaron la meta; 15 van en la tendencia correcta; 8 necesitan más intervención de políticas públicas; 13 requieren una fuerte intervención de políticas públicas; 27 están estancadas y 5 en retroceso”, afirmó hoy Alicia Bárcena, Secretaria Ejecutiva de la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).

Agregó que la pandemia del COVID-19 visibilizó los problemas estructurales del modelo económico y las carencias del sistema de protección social y brechas del régimen de bienestar, confirmando la necesidad de repensar el desarrollo y formular respuestas para un mundo post COVID.

This article by the International Crisis Group says that deadly and disruptive as it already is, and terribly as it could yet worsen and spread, the 2020 coronavirus outbreak could also have political effects that last long after the contagion is contained. Crisis Group identifies seven points of particular concern.

This article by the CATO Institute says that as the COVID-19 virus spreads across the U.S., some Americans have highlighted the economic consequences of the crisis, particularly the disruptive drop in production of goods destined for U.S. manufacturers. This has led to calls to use the crisis as an opportunity to decouple the two nations economically, one reason for such being to protect U.S. companies and consumers from supply disruptions.

There always is a case for diversification, says the CATO Institute article, as well as domestic production of narrowly defined essential goods. Yet autarky long has been recognized as a strategy of economic impoverishment. The benefits of international trade remain great, ensuring the ability to acquire goods that are better, cheaper, and varied. The diversity in product, process, and location offer important alternatives to sometimes limited domestic supplies. Further, the increased prosperity that results from economic specialization generates a long‐​term cushion to temporary disruptions. Countries forced to practice veritable autarky because of foreign sanctions, such as Iran, become desperate when faced with a healthcare crisis like the present.

Painel Covid - um mapa com dados de evolução de casos do Covid-19, juntamente com dados de evolução de exportação entre o Brasil e outros países, atualizados mensalmente, para que formuladores de políticas e exportadores possam seguir essa dinâmica e tomar suas decisões

World trade was already slowing in 2019 before the COVID-19 outbreak. WTO trade statistics show that the volume of world merchandise trade shrank by 0.1% in 2019, marking the first annual decline since 2009, during the global financial crisis. Trade was relatively weak in the final quarter of 2019, but this is unlikely to have been influenced by COVID-19, which was first detected very late in the year. The seasonally-adjusted volume of world merchandise trade in Q4 was down 1.0% year-on-year and 1.2% compared to the previous quarter. Growth was held back by persistent trade tensions and by slowing economic activity in major economies.

Orientações gerais ao empresário; checklist de perguntas para elaboração de plano de ação; e exemplos de medidas que organizações têm adotado face à crise atual.