Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology: Plan for Real-time TAOS Runs

Note: The following plan for use of the TAOS storm hazard model during the 1999 hurricane season was circulated by CIMH to meteorological officials in May 1999.

The objective of the real-time TAOS runs is to provide the Meteorological Services with information which may assist emergency and disaster planners in identifying areas which may be vulnerable to the impacts of surge, waves and winds resulting from the passage of a tropical cyclone. The information is intended to supplement, not replace, that provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

The following are the procedures to be used by the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH):

1. CIMH will run the TAOS model using the NHC’s official forecast when a tropical cyclone of tropical storm strength or greater is predicted to affect the Eastern Caribbean within forty-eight (48) hours.
2. The output for distribution will consists of:
1. Surge maps containing isopleths of the maximum surge heights expected.
2. Hydrographs showing the evolution of the surges at specific locations.
3. Maps containing isopleths of the maximum wind speeds expected.
4. Hydrographs showing the evolution of the wind at specific locations.
5. Hydrographs showing the deep-water wave heights at specific locations.
6. Any other information CIMH may consider useful, including guidelines for interpretation
3. Information will be sent to the relevant Meteorological Services within three (3) hours of the time of issue of the advisory and through the most appropriate communications channels available. These include email, telefax or any other means. CIMH will hold telephone conversations with senior meteorological personnel on the results and their interpretation.
4. Information will be updated at least once every twenty-four (24) hours, but sooner in the event of significant changes in the forecast.
5. CIMH expects that all efforts will be made by the appropriate authorities during the actual event to obtain the relevant observations which can be used to verify the output from the model.
6. All information is provided subject to the following disclaimer: