Primer on Natural Hazard Management in Integrated Regional Development Planning












Table of Contents

Department of Regional Development and Environment Executive Secretariat for Economic and Social Affairs Organization of American States

With support from the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance United States Agency for International Development

Washington, D.C. 1991

Table of Contents

PREFACE

PART I - INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT PLANNING AND NATURAL HAZARDS

CHAPTER 1 - INCORPORATING NATURAL HAZARD MANAGEMENT INTO THE DEVELOPMENT PLANNING PROCESS

A. WHAT ARE NATURAL HAZARDS?

1. How Natural Are Natural Hazards?
2. Environment, Natural Hazards and Sustainable Development
3. The Impact of Natural Hazards Can Be Reduced

B. SUSCEPTIBILITY TO VULNERABILITY REDUCTION

1. The Nature of the Hazard

a. Rapid Onset vs. Slow Onset
b. Controllable Events vs. Immutable Events
c. Frequency vs. Severity
d. Mitigation Measures to Withstand Impact vs. Mitigation Measures to Avoid Impact

2. The Nature of the Study Area
3. The Participants in the Drama

C. HAZARD MANAGEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT PLANNING

1. Hazard Management Activities

a. Disaster Mitigation
b. Natural Hazard Prediction
c. Emergency Preparedness
d. Disaster Rescue and Relief
e. Post-Disaster Rehabilitation and Reconstruction
f. Education and Training Activities

2. Incorporating Mitigation Measures into the Stages of an Integrated Development Planning Study

a. Preliminary Mission: Designing the Study
b. Phase I: Development Diagnosis
c. Phase II: Project Formulation and Action Plan Preparation
d. Implementing the Study Recommendations

3. Advantages of Integrated Development Planning for Natural Hazard Management

D. HAZARD MANAGEMENT IN SELECTED ECONOMIC SECTORS

1. Energy in Costa Rica
2. Tourism in Jamaica
3. Agriculture in Ecuador
4. Strategies Derived from the Case Studies

E. IMPLEMENTING THE RECOMMENDATIONS: STRATEGIES FOR DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE AGENCIES1

1. Technical Cooperation Agencies
2. Convincing Financing Agencies

a. A Change in Context
b. Incentives for Analysis
c. Assignment of Accountability for Losses

REFERENCES

CHAPTER 2 - NATURAL HAZARD RISK REDUCTION IN PROJECT FORMULATION AND EVALUATION

A. NATURAL HAZARDS IN PERSPECTIVE

1. Historical Disasters and Agricultural Losses
2. Economy-wide Effects of Disasters
3. Natural Hazards and Development Issues

B. BASIC CONCEPTS: NATURAL HAZARDS AND INVESTMENT PROJECTS

1. Probability
2. Risk
3. Risk Aversion
4. Risk Assessment
5. Risk Management
6. Investment Project

C. THE USE OF NATURAL HAZARD INFORMATION IN INVESTMENT PROJECT PREPARATION

1. Preliminary Mission
2. Phase I - Development Diagnosis
3. Phase II - Project Formulation and Definition of Action Plan
4. Project Implementation

D. INCORPORATING NATURAL HAZARDS INTO PLANNING AND DECISION-MAKING IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR

1. Attitudes Toward the Risks from Natural Hazards
2. Establishing Evaluation Criteria and Priorities

E. PRINCIPLES OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

1. Measuring Costs
2. Measuring Benefits
3. Discounting Net Project Flows
4. Project Evaluation

F. INCORPORATING NATURAL HAZARDS INTO THE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS

1. Decision Criteria with Limited Information

a. Cut-Off Period
b. Discount Rate Adjustments
c. Game Theory Approaches
d. Sensitivity Analysis

2. Decision Criteria with Probabilistic Information

a. Mean-Variance Analysis
b. Safety-First Analysis

G. CONCLUDING REMARKS
REFERENCES

CHAPTER 3 - RESOURCE EVALUATION AND THE ROLE OF ECOSYSTEMS IN MITIGATING NATURAL HAZARDS

A. LAND-USE EVALUATIONS IN LATIN AMERICA
B. LIMITATIONS OF LAND-USE EVALUATIONS

1. Limited Emphasis on Cultural Components
2. Lack of Standard Procedures to Incorporate Information about Risk from Natural Hazards

C. LAND-USE EVALUATIONS BASED ON A SYSTEMS VIEW

1. A Systems View
2. Systems Attributes

a. Linkages and System Function
b. Limiting Factors
c. Buffering
d. Thresholds

D. ASSESSING NATURAL HAZARDS IN LAND-USE EVALUATIONS

1. Preliminary Mission
2. Phase I Activities
3. Phase II Activities
4. General Recommendations

E. NATURAL SERVICES IN SUPPORT OF HAZARD MITIGATION

1. Ecosystem Boundaries, Watersheds, and River Basins
2. Ecosystems and Associated Hazards

a. Uplands and Volcanic Activity (U1)
b. Uplands and Earthquakes (U2)
c. Uplands and Landslides (U3)
d. Uplands and Hurricanes (U4)
e. Uplands and Land/Sea-Borne Floods (U5)
f. Uplands and Desertification (U6)
g. Lowlands and Land/Sea-Borne Floods (L5)
h. Lowlands and Desertification (L6)
i. Estuary and Hurricanes (E4)
j. Estuary and Land/Sea-Borne Floods (E5)
k. Reef and Hurricanes (R4)
l. Reef and Land/Sea-Borne Floods (R5)
m. Open Sea and Hurricanes (S4)
n. Open Sea and Land/Sea-Borne Floods (S5)

REFERENCES

PART II - TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES FOR NATURAL HAZARD ASSESSMENT

CHAPTER 4 - REMOTE SENSING IN NATURAL HAZARD ASSESSMENTS

A. OVERVIEW OF IMPORTANT REMOTE SENSING ATTRIBUTES

1. Scale
2. Resolution
3. Image Contrast
4. Time Frame
5. Remote Sensing Images and Maps
6. Output Formats

B. AERIAL REMOTE SENSING

1. Aerial Photography

a. Scales and Wavelengths
b. Type of Film

2. Radar
3. Thermal Infrared Scanners
4. Advantages and Limitations of Photography, Radar, and Thermal IR Scanners

a. Photography and Radar
b. Thermal IR Scanners

C. SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING

1. Landsat
2. SPOT
3. Satellite Radar Systems
4. AVHRR
5. Metric Camera
6. Large Format Camera
7. Sojuzkarta

D. APPLICATIONS OF REMOTE SENSING TECHNOLOGY TO NATURAL HAZARD ASSESSMENTS

1. Floods
2. Hurricanes
3. Earthquakes
4. Volcanic Eruptions and Related Hazards
5. Landslides
6. Desertification

REFERENCES

CHAPTER 5 - GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS IN NATURAL HAZARD MANAGEMENT

A. BASIC GIS CONCEPTS

1. What is a GIS?
2. GIS Operations and Functions

a. Data Input
b. Data Storage
c. Data Manipulation and Processing
d. Data Output

3. Elements of a GIS

a. Hardware and Software Components
b. Users and Users' Needs
c. Information and Information Sources

B. USE OF GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS IN NATURAL HAZARD ASSESSMENTS AND INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT PLANNING

1. GIS Applications at the National Level
2. GIS Applications at the Subnational Level
3. GIS Applications at the Local Level
4. Use of a Geo-referenced Database

C. GUIDELINES FOR PREPARING A GIS

1. Conduct a Needs Assessment, Define Proposed Applications and Objectives
2. Execute an Economic Analysis for GIS Acquisition
3. Select among Alternative Systems and Equipment
4. Establish a Database

a. Determination of Proposed Applications of the System
b. Determination of Data Needs and Sources for the Applications Selected
c. Design of the Data Files

CONCLUSIONS
REFERENCES

CHAPTER 6 - MULTIPLE HAZARD MAPPING

A. BENEFITS OF MULTIPLE HAZARD MAPPING
B. PREPARING MULTIPLE HAZARD MAPS

1. Translated Information
2. Sources and Compiling Information
3. Timing

C. MAP FORMAT

1. Base Map
2. Scale and Coverage
3. Hazards to be Shown
4. Types of Symbols

D. OTHER FORMS OF MULTIPLE HAZARDS INFORMATION

1. Cross section of Effects
2. Photographs of Damage
3. Atlas of Hazards
4. Plan for Reducing Hazards
5. Analyses of Land Capability
6. Single Event with Multiple Hazards
7. Series of Strip Maps
8. Photo Maps
9. Geographic Information Systems
10. Information Processed by Computer

E. LIMITATIONS

1. Credibility
2. Likelihood, Location, and Severity
3. Accuracy versus Precision
4. Scale
5. Abuse
6. Synthesis versus Detail
7. Use of Caveats

CONCLUSION
REFERENCES

CHAPTER 7 - CRITICAL FACILITIES MAPPING

A. CRITICAL FACILITIES CHARACTERISTICS AND PERFORMANCE

1. Definitions
2. Characteristics of Critical Facilities
3. Damage Scenarios

B. PREPARATION AND USE OF CRITICAL FACILITIES MAPS

1. Benefits of Critical Facilities Mapping
2. Preparing Critical Facilities Maps

a. Base Maps
b. Information Display Techniques
c. Key Elements of Critical Facility Information

3. Compiling Critical Facilities Information
4. Sources of Critical Facilities Information
5. Assessing the Vulnerability of Critical Facilities

C. COMBINING CRITICAL FACILITIES MAPS AND MULTIPLE HAZARD MAPS

1. Uses of Combined Critical Facilities Maps and Multiple Hazard Maps

a. Examples of Combinations of MHM and CFM
b. Regional Planning: The Integrated Development Planning Process

REFERENCES

PART III - ASSESSMENT OF SPECIFIC NATURAL HAZARDS

CHAPTER 8 - FLOODPLAIN DEFINITION AND FLOOD HAZARD ASSESSMENT

A. FLOODPLAINS AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP TO INTEGRATED REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

1. Floods, Floodplains, and Flood-Prone Areas
2. Flood Hazard Assessment
3. Land Surface Characteristics Related to Floods

a. Changing Nature of Floodplains
b. Frequency of Flooding
c. Length of Inundation
d. Effects of Development Practices on Flooding and Floodplains, and the Role of Mitigation

B. OVERVIEW OF SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING TECHNOLOGY RELATED TO FLOODS AND THE DEVELOPMENT PLANNING PROCESS

1. Determining Acceptable Risk
2. Satellite Remote Sensing Methods Applied to Flood Hazards
3. Integrating Remote Sensing Flood Information into a Development Planning Study

a. Preliminary Mission
b. Phase I
c. Phase II
d. Project Implementation

C. FLOOD HAZARD MAPPING TECHNIQUES AND APPLICATION OF SATELLITE DATA

1. Traditional Techniques of Floodplain Mapping
2. Remote Sensing Techniques for Floodplain Mapping

a. Floodplain and Flood-Related Changes Detected by Remote Sensing
b. Selection of Satellite Data

3. Photo-Optical Method for Initial Floodplain Delineation and Flood Hazard Assessment

D. APPLICATION OF REMOTE SENSING DATA TO FLOOD-PRONE AREAS: TWO CASE STUDIES

1. Case Study 1: Honduras Coastal Plain

a. Photo-Optical Technique Employed for Spectral Analysis
b. Temporal Analysis of Land Surface Changes

2. Case Study 2: Pilcomayo River Floodplain

a. Photo-Optical Techniques Employed for Spectral Analysis
b. Temporal Analysis of Changes in the Floodplain and River Channel

CONCLUSIONS
REFERENCES

CHAPTER 9 - DESERTIFICATION HAZARD ASSESSMENT

A. TERMS AND CONCEPTS USED IN DESERTIFICATION HAZARD ANALYSIS
B. PRINCIPAL FACTORS WHICH INFLUENCE DESERTIFICATION HAZARDS

1. Precipitation and the Occurrence of Drought
2. Potential Evapotranspiration (PET)
3. Wind
4. Soil Texture
5. Land Form
6. Land Use
7. Land Management

C. EVALUATION OF DESERTIFICATION HAZARD IN REGIONAL PLANNING STUDIES

1. The Stages of Planning

a. Preliminary Mission
b. Phase I. Diagnosis of the Study Area
c. Phase II. Formulation of Development Projects

2. Defining Desertification Potential

a. Hazard Zoning
b. A Descriptive Key to Identify Desertification Potential

3. Integrated Analysis of Desertification Hazards

REFERENCES
APPENDIX

CHAPTER 10 - LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT

A. OVERVIEW OF LANDSLIDE HAZARD MAPPING AND THE DEVELOPMENT PLANNING PROCESS

1. Determining Acceptable Risk
2. Landslide Hazard Mapping
3. Integrating Landslide Hazard Zonation Maps into the Development Planning Process

a. Preliminary Mission
b. Phase I - Development Diagnosis
c. Phase II - Development Strategy and Project Formulation
d. Project Implementation

B. LANDSLIDES, LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT, AND AREAS OF CONCERN

1. Landslides and Landslide Susceptibility
2. Hazard Assessment of Landslides
3. Factors Associated with Landslide Activity

a. Past Landslides and Their Distribution
b. Bedrock
c. Slope Steepness or Inclination
d. Hydrologic Factor
e. Human-Initiated Effects

C. MAPPING PHYSICAL FACTORS AND PREPARATION OF A LANDSLIDE HAZARD MAP

1. Mapping the Physical Factors Associated with Landslides

a. Mapping the Inventory of Existing Landslides
b. Mapping the Types of Bedrock Contributing to Instability
c. Mapping Slope Steepness or Inclination
d. The Optional Hydrologic Factor-Mapping Indirect Measures

2. Interpreting Landslide Hazards: The Landslide Hazard Map
3. Factor Analysis: The Technique to Prepare a Hazard Map

a. Step One: Combined Map of Permanent Factors
b. Step Two: Overlay of Landslide Inventory
c. Step Three: Group Combinations Using a Factor Analysis
d. Step Four: Producing Landslide Hazard Zones

4. Compensating for Insufficient Data: The Isopleth Map
5. Computer-Generated Mapping

CONCLUSION
REFERENCES
APPENDIX

CHAPTER 11 - GEOLOGIC HAZARDS

A. OVERVIEW OF GEOLOGIC HAZARDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT PLANNING PROCESS

Development Planning

B. EARTHQUAKES

1. Earthquake Effects and the Hazards They Cause

a. Ground Shaking
b. Surface Faulting
c. Earthquake-Induced Ground Failure: Landslides and Liquefaction

2. Earthquake Hazard Prediction, Assessment, and Mitigation

a. Earthquake Prediction
b. Seismic Risk Assessment
c. Earthquake Mitigation Measures

3. Types and Sources of Earthquake Information

a. Information on Earthquakes (occurrence, size, characteristic effects, relation to geologic features)
b. Information on Seismic Hazards
c. Information on Seismic Risk and Vulnerability
d. Data Substitution

4. Earthquake Hazards and the Development Planning Process

a. Preliminary Mission
b. Phase I: Development Diagnosis
c. Phase II: Development Strategy and Project Formulation
d. Project Implementation

C. VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

1. Volcanic Hazards

a. Tephra Falls and Ballistic Projectiles
b. Pyroclastic Phenomena
c. Lahars and Floods
d. Lava Flows and Domes
e. Other Hazards

2. Classification, Assessment, Mapping, and Mitigation of Volcanic Hazards

a. Classification of Volcanic Hazards
b. Volcanic Hazards and Risk Assessment
c. Volcanic Hazard Zonation Map
d. Mitigation of Volcanic Hazards

3. Volcanic Hazards and the Development Planning Process

a. Preliminary Mission
b. Phase I - Development Diagnosis
c. Phase II - Development strategy and project formulation

D. TSUNAMIS

1. Tsunami Hazards and Their Assessment and Mitigation

a. Tsunami Hazards
b. Tsunami Hazard Assessment
c. Mitigating the Effects of Tsunamis

2. Tsunamis and the Development Planning Process

a. Mexico-Ecuador
b. Colombia-Chile

CONCLUSIONS
REFERENCES

CHAPTER 12 - HURRICANE HAZARDS

A. HURRICANE: THE PHENOMENON

1. HURRICANE DEVELOPMENT

a. Birth: Tropical Depression
b. Growth: Tropical Storm and Hurricane
c. Death: Landfall or Dissipation

2. TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF HURRICANE OCCURRENCE IN THE CARIBBEAN
3. HAZARDOUS CHARACTERISTICS OF HURRICANES

a. Winds
b. Rainfall
c. Storm Surge

B. HISTORICAL OCCURRENCE AND IMPACT ON THE AMERICAS: HURRICANE GILBERT

1. JAMAICA

a. Affected Population and Damage to Social Sectors
b. Impact on the Economy and Damage to Productive Sectors
c. Damage to Natural Resources

2. MEXICO

a. Affected Population and Damage to Social Sectors
b. Impact on the Economy and Damage to Productive Sectors
c. Damage to Natural Resources

C. RISK ASSESSMENT AND DISASTER MITIGATION

1. DETERMINING THE RISK POSED BY HURRICANES
2. MITIGATING AGAINST HURRICANE RISK

a. Reduction of Risk at the International Level
b. Reduction of Risk at the National Level
c. Reduction of Risk at the Local Level

D. COPING WITH HURRICANES IN SMALL TOWNS AND VILLAGES

1. Inventory of Lifeline Networks and Critical Facilities
2. Learning the Operation of Lifelines and Facilities and Their Potential for Disruption by Hurricane
3. Checking the Vulnerability of the Lifelines and Facilities through Field Inspection and Investigation
4. Establishing a Positive Working Relationship with the Agencies and Companies that Manage the Infrastructure and Services of the Community
5. Developing an Understanding of the Total Risk to the Community
6. Formulating a Mitigation Strategy

REFERENCES

APPENDIX A - SOURCES OF INFORMATION ON NATURAL HAZARDS

A. TYPES AND LEVEL OF DETAIL OF NATURAL HAZARD INFORMATION

1. Natural Resource Maps

a. Climate Maps
b. Geologic Maps
c. Hydrologic Maps
d. Landform or Geomorphic Maps
e. Life Zone Maps
f. Soils Maps
g. Topographic Maps

2. Hazard-related Maps

a. Bathymetric Maps
b. Desertification Maps
c. Epicenter Maps
d. Fault Maps
e. Flash Flood Maps
f. Floodplain Maps
g. Landslide Maps
h. Maximum Observed Intensity Maps
i. Seismotectonic Maps
j. Storm Surge Maps
k. Volcano Maps
l. Windstorm Maps

3. Reference Maps for Vulnerability and Risk Assessment

a. Built Structure Maps
b. Cadastral Maps
c. Demographic Maps
d. Drainage and Irrigation
e. Infrastructure Maps
f. Land-Use and Vegetation Maps
g. Lifeline and Critical Facilities Maps


B. THE USE OF HAZARD INFORMATION IN THE DEVELOPMENT PLANNING PROCESS

1. Preliminary Mission (Study Design)
2. Phase I (Development Diagnosis)
3. Phase II (Project Formulation and Sector Plan Preparation)
4. Implementing the Study Recommendations