Presentations

Two major presentations were given to the workshop that described the first two activities of the SJRB water dialogue. Ing. Javier López Gutiérrez, Principal Meteorological Consultant to the dialogue process made both presentations. The first of these, “General Description of the Socio-economic effects of Climate Variability in the San Juan River Basin,” reviewed a characterization of climate, climate variability and socio-economic conditions in the basin that had been made earlier, and the second presented findings of a field investigation into the coping strategies used by priority sectors in selected areas of the basin.

First Presentation: General Description of the Socio-economic Effects of Climate Variability in the San Juan River Basin

Socio-economic data for the basin are available by country, which makes the subdivisions different from those used for climate variability. The divisions used in the analysis were the “northern sector” (Nicaragua) and the “southern sector” (Costa Rica).

An estimated 1,070,000 people live in the basin, 780,000 (70%) in Nicaragua and nearly 290,000 (25%) in Costa Rica. Over 40% of the population of the Nicaraguan portion lives in but four of the 37 municipalities and, within this, in just three cities (Masaya, Granada, and Juigalpa). Fifty-five percent of the population is rural and, although scattered unevenly throughout the basin (in part, because of the number and size of the basin’s parks and reserves), the population density in Nicaragua is 46/km². On the Costa Rican side, 85% of the population is rural and the population density, at 22/km², is less than half that of Nicaragua.

All quality-of-life indicators are lower in both parts of the basin than their respective national averages. The cantons of Upala, Los Chiles, Guatusos, and La Cruz in Costa Rica have significantly lower social development indicators in housing, education, electrification, sewage systems, communications, and health—the last beginning to deteriorate further. While the Nicaraguan portion of the basin has 18.4% of the national population, it also has 36% of the poor population and 43.2% of the nation's indigents.

In the Nicaraguan sector, there are 37 municipalities. Of these, three are classified as having extreme poverty, nine have a high rate of poverty, and 25 are considered as poor (Table 1). The breakdown for population indicates nearly 23% of the population classified as living in severe and high levels of poverty.

Table 1: Social indicators in the Northern Sector of the SJRB.

Conditions in the Costa Rican Sector are only somewhat better. Based on a system where a social development indicator (SDI) of 100 is best and zero is worst, three of the cantons have a score of between 40-46, three are below 20, and one of these is below 10 (Table 2). The index is based on several parameters including education infrastructure, access to special education programs, infant mortality, deaths between the ages of zero and five relative to the general death rate, height of the population entering the first grade, average monthly use of electricity and births to unwed mothers.

Table 2: Social Development Index for Costa Rican Sector of the SJRB.

According to climate data, the basin can be divided into four subsystems (Map 2). These are (1) the arid area around Lake Nicaragua; (2) the tropical wet areas along the San Juan River and its tributaries; (3) the very humid coastal zone and (4) the rainforest on the northern slopes of the central mountains in Costa Rica.., Lake Nicaragua itself corresponds to 21% of the project area. ¹

Generally, rainfall increases from west to east and from north to south (Map 3). Average annual rainfall is between 1,500 mm in the northern and western sectors and 6,000 mm at the higher elevations and along the coast. Temperatures are relatively high throughout the year (26ºC), and decrease somewhat during the rainy seasons (23ºC to 25ºC) and a good deal more at the higher elevations (17ºC). These conditions give rise to 14 Holdridge Life Zones ranging from tropical dry forests to tropical and montane rainforests (Map 4).

Hurricanes, floods, droughts and precipitation deficits as well as tornados (along with earthquakes and volcanoes) have always occurred and influenced life in the basin (Map 5). Periodically, however, the intensity and return-time of these phenomena increase and much of this variability in climate has been related to ENSO.²

ENSO events are dictated by the recurrent warming and cooling of ocean currents in the equatorial Pacific with cycles lasting from two to seven years with four years being the most common. What this means for the basin is that La Niña generally brings more precipitation and a higher probability of hurricanes (and, therefore, more flooding) whereas an El Niño episode generally brings stronger and more prolonged periods of drought. For example, the 1997-98 recurrence of El Niño brought a lengthy drought to much of the basin, followed almost immediately by a period of La Niña and Hurricane Mitch in October of 1998. Although the brunt of this hurricane—one of the worst to ever strike Central America, was felt more severely far to the north of the SJRB, its effects were considerable within the basin. For example, Figure 1 shows the increase in rainfall at several stations in Nicaragua during the month of October 1998. Of the 14 stations listed, Masatepe, Nandaime, Rivas, Ocotal, Muy Muy, San Carlos, and Juigalpa are all within or very near the basin.

Figure 1:	Precipitation at several station in Nicaragua for October 1998 compared with historic averages

Descriptions of the socio-economic situation and emergencies created by climate variability show worrisome indications that much of the basin’s population is in danger—especially the municipalities around Lake Nicaragua for drought, and the municipalities and cantons along the coast for hurricanes (Table 3).

Table 3: Levels of risk for hurricanes and drought in the cantons and municipalities of the SJRB.

Likewise, overlays of maps showing population centers and flooding (Map 6 and Map 7) demonstrate that much of the population in the basin is located on flood plains. Map 8 shows that the route for many of the hurricanes and other tropical storms has been directly across the basin.

Second Presentation: Preliminary results from a field survey of coping methods found in selected municipalities and cantons of the San Juan River Basin.

           Ing. Javier Lopez Gutierrez also made the second presentation wherein he summarized the methods that were used in the investigation. He gave preliminary results of the field interviews that had been conducted concerning the coping practices used by various sectors in the SJRB to confront climate variability. The sectors of primary interest considered by the interviewers were potable water, health, municipal governments, rural communities, producers (agriculture and livestock), irrigation, and industry. Gender and migration were looked at as crosscutting issues. Representatives of the communities and institutions from the seven cantons in Costa Rica, and 16 of the 37 municipalities in Nicaragua were interviewed (Table 4).

Table 4: Municipalities and Cantons in the Study Area.

           Some of the more interesting findings of the characterization were presented. For example, conflicts have often arisen in the use of water in many of these localities, primarily because the sources of potable water are often in private hands and the owners limit access, thus creating inconvenience, if not hardship, for those who are not allowed entrance. Conflict was found to be even greater during times of drought. Fortunately, legal frameworks for the management of these conflicts are becoming available.

           In addition to providing a service during “normal” conditions, a growing number of local water-related committees in Costa Rica also appear to help in times of emergency. Many of the communities have programs to clean and maintain water sources, and there are frequent campaigns to sensitize communities on the need to conserve and care for water resources. Some communities have sought to buy additional land and thereby gain additional water. Families in the drier portions of the basin collect and save water especially when an extended dry period is predicted. Other communities have special programs for water storage, use and distribution during times of scarcity. Coordination between institutions during emergencies is increasing. Inventories of potential shelters and of those people who are incapacitated (sick, aged, young, handicapped) are being made and, despite the number of people that can be displaced by floods and hurricanes, efforts are being made to have temporary shelter available.

           Health is always a problem during emergencies since sewage often escapes during flooding and drought. Such contaminants are concentrated in lower flowing rivers and streams. For this reason, some communities mount special campaigns to teach the proper way to irrigate vegetables, bathe, and use scarce water for other household purposes. Other communities have facilities to monitor water quality and improve its quality through filtering or chlorination. Territorial planning and the care of one’s surroundings are important preventive actions meant to keep humans and their provisions out of harms way.