Current and future international capacity of Ecuador (2006 - 2010)

Based on the information provided by the operators in Ecuador, the capacity they use for connecting to the international Internet backbone is of 12 STM-1; that is to say 1.86 Gbps.

This capacity allows handling the 105.000 connections of switched access and over 28.000 connections of dedicated access through DSL, Cable MODEM and fiber optic.

The study concludes that Ecuador will require a minimum capacity of 43 2STM1 in the year 2010, equivalent to 66.2 Gbps., for handling the international connectivity of the different services, in a scenario that would have an average access speed for broadband connections of 1 Mbps; or of 226 STM-1, equivalent to 33.8, in a more conservative scenario with an average access speed of 512 Mbps.

The study of Broadband in the Andean Region carried out by the Association of Telecommunication Undertakings of the Andean Community, ASETA, in 2005, establishes the following growth rates for the Internet connections in Ecuador:

Based on these growth rates and starting from the amount of links as of December 2005 reported by the operators to CONATEL, the following connections projection until the year 2010 is obtained:

Capacity for Internet:

Considering that the international band width is one of the critical aspects in the development of the connectivity of broadband Internet, due to the quality as well as the cost, it is assumed that the reuse of the international capacity for switched access is of 10:1, with an access speed of 56 Kbps, which will have no future modifications because the technological developments are more focused to the DSL dedicated connections and Cable MODEM.

As regards the dedicated connections, a reuse factor of 5:1 is estimated, considering the current capacities and its projected growth, while the access speed will be constantly growing based on the reduction of the tariff and the larger needs of access capacity supported by the equipments and the one required by the new applications and uses of information as are games, video, VoIP on the established connections.

For the development of social Internet, a reuse rate of 8:1 is estimated, considering its use hours and types of applications to be used.

Two estimations are made: The first one, takes into consideration an evolution of the dedicated connections for reaching an average band width of 1 Mbpd by dedicated connection in 2010 (Scenario A) and a more conservative one that estimates that an average speed of 512 Kbps can be reached by dedicated connection in 2010 (Scenario B). 

For Scenario A:

 Source: World level growth projections and own estimates.

For Scenario B:

Capacity for International Data:

Notwithstanding the importance of the corporate clients of maintaining links with their headquarters located in countries different from Ecuador, the use of international capacity for this type of services is low, as regards Internet and telephone. Additionally, companies prefer to use other type of services that allow the optimization of their infrastructure, for example, the configuration of VPNs on Internet.

Based on the above, it is estimated that the growth, in band width on the links currently configured as well as in the amount of connections for the following five years, will show very low rates and therefore the needs of international capacity for this type of services will be very limited in comparison to the needs of capacity for Internet access.

The following chart shows a projection of the average band width growth for international data connection assuming that, based on the information provided by the operators, the current average is 384 Kbps.

Starting from a number of dedicated links at the end of 2005 and low growth rates for the next five years, the following number of dedicated links for international connection was obtained:

Capacity for Voice services.

Voice traffic based on traditional TDM switching by Incumbent operators is falling to an annual rate of 5%, as was shown by international analysts and ratified by comparing the total figures for Ecuador in 2005 with the figures for 2004 (1.216 billion minutes in 2005 and 1.258 billion in 2004). This tendency is irreversible and obeys to the fact that IP telephony technology is more mature every day and is coming out at rock-bottom prices, especially in the clandestine traffic modality. Incumbent operators must accept this technology in order to offset clandestine traffic and avoid the income loss derived from this. As incumbent operators begin to accept the technology and the countries draw up clear-cut regulations for IP telephony, it will be better positioned in the market.  

Taking the above into account, we have anticipated the traditional TDM telephone traffic with an annual fall of 5% year after year, until 2010. On the other hand, for IP telephony traffic we estimated the following large growth rates during the period of the study:

However, in spite of the accumulated high growth rates during the period observed, IP telephony does not require large transport capacity compared to the compression technology it uses, which is one of its most attractive aspects.

The STM-1s capacity required to efficiently transport telephone traffic over the IP modality, where we anticipated the use of G.729 coding and silence detection is shown below.

For clarification purposes, this traffic modality refers to finished traffic in duly authorized operators. There is another type of traffic which does not end at PSTN network telephone devices but at users´ terminals or PCs, its capacity being basically the internet capacity.

Results of the Projection of the International Capacity Needs:

Based on the above considerations, the total projection of the international band width needs, with the estimated growth year after year until 2010, is as follows:

Scenario A: Total International STM-1s Capacity

Scenario B: Total International STM-1s Capacity

<<Selection in Document>>The above projection allows to determine the international band width needs for Internet and Data services, in Giga bits per second and their growth rate for the period of study until 2010 in Ecuador.

Scenario A : Internet and Data international capacity and growth rate

Scenario B: Internet and Data international capacity and growth rate