Second Quarter, 1995

(April 1, 1995 - June, 30 1995)

Prepared For:

Cooperative Agreement No. 940-1008-A-00-3522-00

Issued By:

1889 F Street N.W.

Washington, DC 20011

July 31, 1995

Based on exploratory work started in early 1991 by the USAID Offices of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) and Regional Housing and Urban Development Office of the Caribbean (RHUDO/CAR), and subsequent participation of the Housing and Urban Programs (PRE/H), the Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project (CDMP) was formulated, and the Organization of American States was selected as the lead international agency responsible for its implementation. In September 1993, the General Secretariat of the Organization of American States and the US Agency for International Development signed a $5.0 million OFDA-funded agreement to provide technical assistance for disaster mitigation in selected nations of the Wider Caribbean Region. The CDMP is scheduled to be implemented over a five-year period. The purpose of the project is to establish sustainable public/private sector mechanisms which measurably lessen loss of life, reduce the potential for physical and economic damage, and shorten the disaster recovery period in the project area. Participant nations include the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Belize and the Eastern Caribbean countries that are receiving ongoing assistance from USAID.

The CDMP is being implemented by the OAS Department of Regional Development and Environment (DRDE), in conjunction with RHUDO/CAR, located in the USAID/Jamaica Mission, and USAID missions in the region. A Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) is providing policy guidance and periodic review of the project. This committee includes representatives from CARICOM, the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency (CDERA), RHUDO, OFDA, the USAID Missions in the region, the OAS, and the last coordinator of the Pan-Caribbean Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Project (PCDPPP).

The CDMP focuses on major issues in the disaster/development linkage in the Caribbean, which include:

The six project outputs are:

6. Post-Disaster Mitigation -- or "incorporating mitigation measures in reconstruction efforts"

Inputs to the project consist of:

A. Project Management and Administration Functions

The Monitoring and Evaluation Consultant visited Jamaica, Dominica, Saint Lucia and the Dominican Republic to introduce the "Managing for Results" methodology and review the draft M & E matrices with RHUDO/CAR and project managers. Recommendations were made concerning additional data needs and development of forms to detect changes attributable to project activities. Where needed, more specific workplans are being developed by project managers to support their decision-making needs as well as the evaluation process.

A Public Education, Information and Training Strategy was developed by the RHUDO/CAR Regional Disaster Advisor and submitted for comments to the CDMP and USAID. The CDMP Regional Coordinator prepared a scope of work for implementation of the strategy, and contracted the Caribbean Institute for Media Communication to develop an overall media plan for the CDMP.

2. Accomplishments to-date since program initiation

CEP completed the final report on the LUCELEC facilities vulnerability audit, and the report was circulated for review. CEP has started work on the Manual and Guidelines which will incorporate elements from all three consultancies.

Contact was made with Applied Research Associates, the leader in wind risk studies to T&D installations. A proposal to undertake a pilot wind risk management study and produce recommendations for the entire region is under study.

1. Accomplishments in the current quarter

a) Jamaica: Montego Bay Coastal Flooding: A meeting was held with the Jamaican Institute of Engineers on May 15-16 to review the first set of Montego Bay flood maps. The engineers questioned the selection of the "100 year storm" and were concerned that the single 100 year flood line might be translated by government in a strict zoning restriction. It was agreed that CDMP would produce a range of maximum flood lines corresponding to different storm categories and angles of approach. This it was felt would provide government with better information on which to base any planning or building legislation.

b) Jamaica: Kingston Multihazard Mapping. The CDMP regional coordinator and the RHUDO/CAR regional disaster advisor completed scopes of work for the various components of this activity. These have been reviewed by the different implementing agencies, and several meetings have been held to discuss their concerns. Each agency has been asked to submit a detailed work program and time-line. These will be reviewed by the CDMP team and integrated into a comprehensive work program. There exists no large scale cartographic base for the Kingston Metropolitan Area. CDMP therefore will have to include its production in this activity. Arrangements have been explored with the University to produce these maps in digital form.

c) The CDMP regional coordinator submitted a proposal to the National Land Policy Committee at the Office of the Prime Minister recommending the incorporation of various disaster management policies and techniques. These have been accepted by the Committee and will be submitted to the Cabinet.

d) The Caribbean Meteorological Institute (CMI) has received an update of the TAOS RTFS (Real Time Forecasting System) model software and users manual, based on recommendations that emerged from using the first version installed in December 1994.

e) Belize: Flood Hazard Assessment. A national GIS base for the flood hazard assessment was constructed using Landsat TM Imagery acquired from the Land Information Council (LIC) in Belize. A coastal flood hazard assessment was undertaken by producing maximum envelopes of water (MEOW) for various storm categories. Arrangements were made for a 10 day mission of the CDMP GIS consultant in September to review the results with the local technical agencies, to install the coastal flood data base in the LIC and to develop applications for land use planning. CMI approval was sought to install the updated TAOS RTFS model in the Belize National Meteorological Office during the same mission.

f) Dominican Republic. A meeting was held with the Director of the National Meteorological Service and the Military Cartographic Institute to review the earlier prepared national-scale wind hazard and storm surge hazard maps for each one of the Saffir-Simpson categories for the island of Hispaniola. These maps are now being modified to incorporate the comments of these institutions. It was established that there were no tidal gauge readings available to calibrate the storm surge model.

In April the CDMP regional coordinator and consultants held a series of meetings in Antigua and Barbuda with public and private sector representatives to review the draft code. Support for the project was obtained from the Prime Minister's office. Comments from the public meetings are being incorporated in the code. Consultations were held with Dominica regarding start-up of activities in that Island.

1) Saint Lucia: With the break-up of the CARITAS-NRDF partnership, a new contract was prepared for CARITAS, enabling it to continue the project as originally designed, including the operation of a revolving loan fund. During this quarter, CARITAS completed new market surveys in targeted communities to identify participants in the project. NRDF organized a training course for builders, and continued its home improvement program which incorporates a safety upgrade/retrofitting component.

2) Dominica: As of June 30, NDFD had conducted four training workshops and started retrofitting activities with the disbursement of 4 loans. Eleven loan applicants were put on the waiting list as the loan seed fund was exhausted. Negotiations were started to speed up access to the CHF loan fund, and to identify possible local funding.

a) On May 23-24, CDMP and the Camera de Aseguradoras de la Republica Dominicana (CADOAR) held a two day workshop on Probable Maximum Loss (PML) calculation. Five US based risk management firms were invited to make presentations on the second day to give participating insurance companies an opportunity to gain information about conditions for contracting PML study services.

b) In Jamaica, little progress was noted in following up on the recommendations of the workshop held in the Fall of 1994. JAGIC and the Principal of the Insurance College are still interested in organizing a training course for underwriters in basic vulnerability assessment. CDMP is exploring how CAST can be used as technical resource for such course.

c) CDMP contracted Mr. Arthur Evans as lead consultant for the preparation of a working paper on catastrophe protection in the Caribbean. The objectives and outline of the paper were prepared in consultation with the Chairman of the CARICOM working party on insurance and reinsurance. At the invitation of the OAS, the World Bank has joined the effort. Consultants from CDMP and the World Bank visited Trinidad during the IAC Annual General Meeting, and Jamaica to consult with the chairman of the CARICOM working party.

The CDMP project director and the Director of RHUDO/CAR went on a programming mission to Haiti from

June 12 to 15, 1995. Meetings were held with the USAID Mission, the OAS office, the Ministry of the Environment, the Office for Disaster Preparedness (OPDES), the Red Cross, Catholic Relief Services, Care International, and the UNDP. Based on the information gained from these meetings, four objectives were identified as guiding principles for CDMP activities in Haiti:

It was agreed that CDMP would hire a local project coordinator to oversee all CDMP activities. A draft project description and a scope of work for the project coordinator were prepared and are under review by the interested agencies in Haiti. (See Annex 1 and 2 to this report). The search for candidates for the position of project coordinator was initiated.

The World Bank has incorporated the recommendations of the CDMP post-Debby landslide hazard assessment in their Reconstruction Program, which includes the creation of a National Watershed Management Plan. No new activities took place this quarter

H. Regional Workshops

1. Accomplishments in the current quarter

The CDMP was invited to the 17th Session of the RAIV Hurricane Committee of the World Meteorological Organization in Guadeloupe, April 4 - 8, 1995. The CDMP project director and GIS consultant presented the TAOS storm hazard assessment model and the pilot applications that are presently under development: the coastal flood hazard mapping application in Montego Bay, and the storm impact projection model using live weather forecasts, installed in the Caribbean Meteorological Institute (CMI). The presentation was followed by extensive questions demonstrating great interest on the part of the participants. Dr. Bob Sheets, chairman of the committee, warned that the model still needs to be tested, and suggested that it be evaluated by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA). The representative of NOAA suggested that the CDMP model and the French model, developed by Meteo France and presented at last year's committee meeting, be run on the same test data, provided by NOAA. The test took place in June. NOAA has communicated its satisfaction with the results, and has scheduled an extensive further study of the TAOS model, to be carried out during the next quarter. A report by NOAA is expected at that point.

OAS was invited by the Caribbean Development Bank to assist the Bank with addressing natural hazard concerns in its project preparation and appraisal procedures. It was agreed that this could best be achieved through a training course for Bank staff. Using the experience gained from similar courses offered in Central and South America, and more recent experiences from CDMP activities, a proposal was made to CDB for a three day training course on incorporating natural hazard considerations in the project preparation process. The course is scheduled for July 24-26, 1995 at the CDB offices in Barbados.

2. Accomplishments to date since program initiation

In its first year of operation, the CDMP has progressed as planned. On June 29, 1993, prior to official initiation of the project, representatives of RHUDO/CAR, OAS, OFDA, and BHM (all members of the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) met to discuss a planning and evaluation strategy. Based on their discussions, the eight original project "outputs" noted in the project agreement were consolidated to produce five project "outputs" (See Section I - "Program Overview"). A sixth output, "Post Disaster Mitigation", was added by the expanded regional membership of TAC. This flexibility in programming and planning as determined by review and collaboration of TAC members has been essential in streamlining operations and focussing resources towards opportunities which have proven to be the most productive.

Progress in advancing the project purpose of "establishing sustainable public/private sector mechanisms which measurably lessen loss of life, reduce the potential for physical and economic damage, and shorten the recovery period in the project area" is clearly contingent on the adoption of mitigation and preparedness practices by governments, private organizations, investors, insurers, and communities. This may not be measurable during the project period, especially if significant natural hazard events do not occur after such mechanisms have been established. Such region-wide adoption is in turn contingent on the success of pilot project activities.

The project objective of "increasing the number of governments, private organizations and communities adopting and investing in recommended mitigation and preparedness practices" is measurably progressing. Common obstacles to this progress have been the lack of commitment of national agency counterparts and their inability to provide essential staff time and support resources -- a situation often caused by the inter-agency political process. This has most notably been observed in the "Risk Assessment/Hazard Mapping" activities in Jamaica, where counterparts have been unable to dedicate the necessary staff time and hardware platforms as was agreed when collaboration with CDMP started. To overcome this, the CDMP has contracted individual lead agencies to produce specific outputs or lead regional workshops. Another strategy has been to increase efforts to obtain support for the project from the political directorate of the country.

A strategy for increasing effective collaboration between the private and public sectors has emerged: given the limited resources available through the CDMP, project information is targeted at senior level management in the context of joint exercises and workshops. This insures broad, industry-wide project dissemination and provides formal opportunities for private and public sector officials to meet and interact. To increase the number of communities which plan to invest in vulnerability preparedness and mitigation, the CDMP approach identifies government agencies and private sector organizations that have already established a working relationship with existing communities, and seeks to direct their joint efforts towards project objectives. This has involved the funding of regional and national surveys and the establishment of national-level Planning and Advisory Committees to develop mechanisms to respond to community-based initiatives.

The preferred means of overcoming obstacles to project performance and progress has been to negotiate solutions through the establishment of Technical Working Groups (TWG) and National Advisory Committees, which serve as fora for government agency and private sector representatives to meet, collaborate, exchange expertise and share resources. While this approach has proved to be effective, it has limitations: TWG's have been observed to disintegrate despite the best efforts of the members and the CDMP, often because member institutions may be experiencing organizational changes and financial stress for reasons unrelated to the CDMP. This results in their inability to maintain necessary participation in project activities. In these events the CDMP has dedicated extra resources to strengthening existing institutions to achieve project objectives. In the long-term, the CDMP may have to collaborate with other international donor agencies or well-funded private sector institutions who are willing to underwrite more extensive hiring of dedicated national project staff and the purchase of necessary equipment. The best test of the commitment of a collaborating government agency is its ability to contribute the needed human resources and equipment.

The CDMP's potential for achieving long-term measurable results lies in its ability, over the relatively short-term of the project period, to enable the disaster management and development planning communities in the region to develop an economy of scale for training activities and technology transfer, and to collaborate and share their expertise with those working in other sectors. The current project budget can only support careful selection and oversight of a limited number of pilot projects. However, the pilot projects have been designed to yield easily replicable methods and mechanisms for wide-spread dissemination of disaster preparedness and mitigation practices at the local, sectoral, national and regional scales. If the overall project continues along its current course, clearly-identified pilot project milestones will continue to be met, information on pilot project success (or failure) will continue to be clearly documented and disseminated, and essential gaps in disaster mitigation will continue to be addressed by well-trained and equipped professionals, and well-informed and empowered communities. The ultimate test of the success of the CDMP will be the measurement of reduced impacts after the occurrence of significant natural hazard events in the project area -- events which may not occur until long after the project has achieved its short-term objectives.