Table A-4 - Maximum seismic intensity and conditional probability of occurrence of a large or great earthquake for selected locations in Central America

Location				Maximum Likely Seismic Intensity	Conditional Probabilitya/
					1989-1994 (%)	1989-1999 (%)	1989-2009 (%)
COSTA RICA
	Province
		Alajuela
			West	VIII	9	43	93
			Central and East	VIII	£1-3	£1-8	4-25
		Guanacaste
			West	VIII	16	31	55
			East	VIII	9	43	93
		Heredia (West)		VIII	£1	£1	£4
		Puntarenas
			North	VIII	3-9	8-43	25-93
			Central	VIII	£1	£1	£4
		San José (West)		VIII	£1	£1	£4
EL SALVADOR
	Department
		Ahuchapán		VIII	29	51	79
		Cabañas		VII	£1	£1	£1
		Cuscatlán		VII	29	51	79
		La Libertad		VIII	29	51	79
		La Paz
			West	VIII	29	51	79
			East	VIII	£1	£1	£1
		San Miguel (West)		VIII	£1	£1	£1
		San Salvador		VIII	29	51	79
		San Vicente		VIII	£1	£1	£1
		Santa Ana		VIII	29	51	79
		Sonsonate		VIII	29	51	79
		Usulatán		VIII	£1	£1	£1
GUATEMALA
	Department
		Alta Verapaz		VIII	(4)	(8)	(15)
		Baja Verapaz		VIII	(4)	(8)	(15)
		Chimaltenango		VIII	10	23	50
		Chiquimula		VIII	29	51	79
		El Progreso		VIII	29	51	79
		Escuintla		VIII	10	23	50
		Guatemala		X	10-29	23-51	50-79
		Huehuetenango
			East	X	(4)	(8)	(15)
			West	X	5	13	34
		Izabal
			East	VIII	£1	£1	£1
			West	VIII	(4)	(8)	(15)
		Jalapa		VII	29	51	79
		Jutiapa		VIII	29	51	79
		Quezaltenango		IX	5	13	34
		Quiché		VIII	(4)	(8)	(15)
		Retalhuleu		VIII	5	13	34
		Sacatepéquez		VIII	10	23	50
		San Marcos		IX	5	13	34
		Santa Rosa		IX	10-29	23-51	50-79
		Sololá		VIII	10	23	50
		Suchitepéquez		VIII	10	23	50
		Totonicapán		VIII	10	23	50
		Zacapa		VIII	(4)	(8)	(15)
HONDURAS
	Department
		Comayagua		VIII	?	?	?
		Copan
			East	VII	£1	£1	£1
			West	VIII	(4)	(8)	(15)
		Intibuca		VIII	?	?	?
		Lempira		VIII	?	?	?
		Ocotepeque
			East	VII	£1	£1	£1
			West	VIII	<4)	(8)	(15)
	Santa Barbara (West)			VIII	£1	£1	£1
NICARAGUA				VIII	?	?	?

^a/ Conditional probability refers largely to earthquakes caused by inter-plate movement.
? No information available.
( ) All values in parenthesis represent less reliable estimates.

Source: Adapted from White, R.A. Maximum Earthquake Intensities in Central America (unpublished map). (Menlo Park, California: U.S. Geological Survey); and Nishenko, S.P. Summary of Circum-Pacific Probability Estimates (unpublished table). (Golden, Colorado: U.S. Geological Survey, 1989).