CDMP Progress Bulletin

Risk Assessment for Caribbean Electrical Utilities

 Bulletin Date: December 1999

The General Secretariat of the Organization of American States (OAS), under an agreement with the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance of the U.S. Agency for International Development, is executing a five year Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project (CDMP). One component of this project consists of assisting electrical utilities in the region in reducing the potential for losses caused by natural hazards in association with the Caribbean Electric Utility Services Corporation (CARILEC). A Memorandum of Understanding was signed under which OAS-CDMP and CARILEC agreed to collaborate in a pilot vulnerability audit of the St. Lucia electrical utility, the St. Lucia Electricity Services Ltd. (LUCELEC), and in the preparation of a manual summarizing methodology and findings of the pilot study for use by CARILEC in training programs for other electrical utilities in the region.

In June 1994, the USAID/OAS-CDMP contracted consulting services for a vulnerability audit of the LUCELEC power plant and facilities, transmission and distribution, and for a vulnerability audit of the hydroelectric power installation in Dominica for the Dominican Electric Services Utility Ltd (DOMLEC). Damage to LUCELEC's installations from hurricane Debby in September 1994 provided valuable data and observations, which were fully incorporated into the ongoing vulnerability audit. For the LUCILEC study, copies of the inception report and the final vulnerability audit are available.

Final reports on the vulnerability audits were submitted to CARILEC in August 1995. LUCELEC and DOMLEC have reviewed their respective reports and have started implementing selected recommendations for loss reduction, and are integrating others into plans for preventive maintenance and expansion. Based on these studies, CDMP also prepared a Manual for Electrical Utilities on Mitigation of Damages caused by Natural Hazards for use by CARILEC as training material. The Manual provides guidelines for electrical utilities in ordering capital works and related technical services, in designing and implementing maintenance programs, and in managing natural hazard risk in general. The same Manual will help implementing engineers contracted by the utility companies in ensuring that natural hazard considerations are appropriately incorporated in the design and construction. CARILEC introduced the training materials at an Electrical Engineers Conference in early 1996 and continues to promote the materials when appropriate.

Following hurricanes Luis and Marilyn (1995), CDMP and CARILEC jointly sponsored a diagnostic study of the failures and successes experienced by the electrical utility in Antigua and Barbuda (APUA), to expand the vulnerability reduction training materials, and to offer APUA concrete recommendations on incorporating mitigation in their reconstruction effort.

Since windstorm risk to transmission and distribution installations represent the principal component of the proposed Risk Management project, CDMP and CARILEC agreed to collaborate on a special pilot study to determine optimal transmission and distribution designs that provide the minimum total life-time cost in function of the risks and effects of system failures. Applied Research Associates (ARA) was contracted to conduct a hurricane vulnerability and risk analysis study for the transmission and distribution system of the electrical utility of St. Vincent and the Grenadines. The study used cost-benefit analysis and investment risk analysis to balance, over the lifetime of the investment, the initial cost, operating cost and failure cost due to hurricane-produced wind. The results of the study can be used to determine costs and benefits associated with new designs or upgrades of existing lines, to estimate annual dollar losses and the probability of losses exceeding specific dollar values, and to address insurance questions.

Activities under this component of the CDMP were completed by the end of 1996. CARILEC has copies of all reports and makes these reports available to its membership. Because of the crippling effects that hurricane damages to electrical utilities can have on the welfare and economic development of countries in the Caribbean, a proposal was developed for a multi-year program for vulnerability reduction in transmission and distribution systems of the Caribbean electrical utilities.  Factors that will influence decisions to act upon this proposal include the commitment of utility owners to improve reliability of performance, national and regional support from the political directorate and financing opportunities.  As of December 1999, no action has been taken.